2012 Japanese general election

Jump to content
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2012 Japanese general election

← 2009
16 December 2012
2014 →

All 480 seats in the House of Representatives
241 seats needed for a majority
Turnout59.32% (Decrease9.87pp; Const. votes)
59.31% (Decrease9.88pp; PR votes)
 First partySecond partyThird party
 
LeaderShinzō AbeYoshihiko NodaShintaro Ishihara
PartyLDPDemocraticRestoration
Last election119 seats308 seatsDid not exist
Seats before11823011
Seats won2945754
Seat changeIncrease 175Decrease 251New
Constituency vote25,643,30913,598,7746,942,354
% and swing43.01% (Increase4.33pp)22.81% (Decrease24.62pp)11.64% (New)
Regional vote16,624,4579,268,65312,262,228
% and swing27.79% (Increase1.06pp)15.49% (Decrease26.92pp)20.50% (New)

 Fourth partyFifth partySixth party
 
LeaderNatsuo YamaguchiYoshimi WatanabeYukiko Kada
PartyKomeitoYourTomorrow
Last election21 seats5 seatsDid not exist
Seats before21861
Seats won31189
Seat changeIncrease 10Increase 13New
Constituency vote885,8812,807,2452,992,366
% and swing1.49% (Increase0.38pp)4.71% (Increase3.84pp)5.02% (New)
Regional vote7,116,4745,245,5863,423,915
% and swing11.90% (Increase0.45pp)8.77% (Increase4.50pp)5.72% (New)

 Seventh partyEighth party
 
LeaderKazuo ShiiMizuho Fukushima
PartyJCPSocial Democratic
Last election9 seats7 seats
Seats before95
Seats won82
Seat changeDecrease 1Decrease 5
Constituency vote4,700,290451,762
% and swing7.88% (Increase3.66pp)0.76% (Decrease1.19pp)
Regional vote3,689,1591,420,790
% and swing6.17% (Decrease0.86pp)2.36% (Decrease1.91pp)

Districts and PR districts shaded according to winners' vote strength

Prime Minister before election

Yoshihiko Noda
Democratic

Elected Prime Minister

Shinzo Abe
LDP

General elections were held in Japan on 16 December 2012. The Liberal Democratic Party won a landslide victory, ejecting the Democratic Party from power after three years. It was the fourth worst defeat suffered by a ruling party in Japanese history.

Voting took place in all representatives' constituencies of Japan including proportional blocks, in order to appoint Members of Diet to seats in the House of Representatives, the lower house of the National Diet of Japan.

In July 2012, it was reported that the deputy prime minister Katsuya Okada had approached the Liberal Democratic Party to sound them out about dissolving the House of Representatives and holding the election in January 2013.[1] An agreement was reached in August to dissolve the Diet and hold early elections "shortly" following the passage of a bill to raise the national consumption tax.[2] Some right-wing observers asserted that as the result of introducing the consumption tax to repay the Japanese public debt,[3][4][5][6][7] the DPJ lost around 75% of its pre-election seats.[8][9]

Background

[edit]

The LDP had governed Japan for all but three years since 1955. However, in the 2009 election, the LDP suffered the worst defeat of a sitting government in modern Japanese history. Due to the characteristics of the Japanese election system, DPJ candidates won 308 seats in the House of Representatives (64.2% of seats), enabling Yukio Hatoyama to become prime minister. Since then, Japan had had two other prime ministers, Naoto Kan and Yoshihiko Noda. On 16 November, Noda dissolved parliament, thus allowing for a new election in a month's time, citing the lack of funds to carry on governmental functions and the need for an emergency budget.

Dissatisfaction with the DPJ-led government and the former LDP-led government led to the formation of several grassroots movements, collectively known as the "third pole," to counter the two major parties.[10] The former Governor of Tokyo Shintarō Ishihara announced the renaming and reformation of the Sunrise Party on 14 November 2012; Ishihara co-lead the party with Takeo Hiranuma.[11] On 17 November 2012 Mayor of Osaka Tōru Hashimoto and former Tokyo Governor Shintarō Ishihara announced the merger of the Japan Restoration Party and the Sunrise Party as a third force to contend the 16 December 2012 general election.[12] It is Japan's first national political party that is based outside of Tokyo.[13]

On 23 November Mayor of Nagoya Takashi Kawamura, former state minister Shizuka Kamei and former farm minister Masahiko Yamada joined forces together to launch Tax Cuts Japan – Oppose TPP – Zero Nuclear Party as another "third pole" national political party.[14] On 28 November, the Governor of Shiga Yukiko Kada in Ōtsu announced the establishment of an anti-nuclear and gender equality focused party known as the Tomorrow Party of Japan, becoming the second national party based outside of Tokyo. Concurrently, the president of DPJ splinter group People's Life First, Ichirō Ozawa, dissolved the party, merging it into the Tomorrow Party. Tax Cuts Japan – Oppose TPP – Zero Nuclear Party and Japan Future Party attempted to merge with the aim of further countering the major and pro-nuclear parties.[15] On 27 November Tax Cuts Japan – Oppose TPP – Zero Nuclear Party officially announced a merger with Tomorrow, with party co-leader Mashahiko Yamada saying, "We would also like to raise our hands in joining because our ways of thinking are the same."[16]

Opinion polls

[edit]
Graph of poll results since 2009
  Democratic
  Liberal Democratic
  New Komeito
  Communist
  Social Democratic
  Your Party
  Others incl. NPN, PNP, NRP and SP
  No Party
Source: NHK
Graph of the current Cabinet Approval/Disapproval Ratings

Party polling for the 180 proportional seats

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Undecided or declined
DPJLDPJRPPLF

TPJ
NKPJCPYPSDP
Asahi Shimbun15–16 November 201244%16%23%6%1%3%2%2%1%
Yomiuri Shimbun16–17 November 201243%13%22%13%
Asahi Shimbun17–18 November 201246%15%23%16%4%
Kyodo News17–18 November 201243%10.8%23%
Yomiuri Shimbun23–25 November 201210%25%14%2%6%2%
Kyodo News [1]24–25 November 201245%8.4%18.7%10.3%2%4%3%
Asahi Shimbun24–25 November 201241%13%23%9%2%4%3%
Nikkei Business Daily28 November 201213%23%15%5%4%
Kyodo News1–2 December 20129.3%18.4%10.4%3.5%4.8%
Asahi Shimbun1–2 December 201241%15%20%9%3%4%3%3%1%
Yomiuri Shimbun30 Nov.-2 Dec 201213%19%13%5%5%
NHK7–9 December 201210%21%11%
Yomiuri Shimbun7–9 December 201212%29%11%3%
Asahi Shimbun8–9 December 201243%14%22%8%2%5%4%2%
Kyodo News12–13 December 201240%11%23%10%

PM polling

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Noda
DPJ
Abe
LDP
Ishihara
JRP
Kyodo News3–4 November 201229.3%40%
Asahi Shimbun15–16 November 201231%33%
Yomiuri Shimbun16–17 November 201231%37%
Kyodo News17–18 November 201232.1%35%
Yomiuri Shimbun23–25 November 201219%29%22%
Kyodo News [2]24–25 November 201230%33.9%
Yomiuri Shimbun30 Nov.-2 Dec 201221%28%
NHK7–9 December 201219%28%
Kyodo News8–9 December 201231%39%
Kyodo News12–13 December 201229%34%

Pre-election composition

[edit]

As of official announcement (kōji [=deadline for candidate registration, legal campaign start, start of early voting on following day]) on 4 December[17] – note that the government had lost its majority, already slim at the time of dissolution of the House of Representatives (16 November), due to further defections during the positioning of candidates for the election.

1391071233
LDP & NKPOther oppositionVIncumbent government (DPJ & PNP)

Results

[edit]
Constituency Cartogram
PartyProportionalConstituencyTotal
seats
+/–
Votes%SeatsVotes%Seats
Liberal Democratic Party16,624,45727.625725,643,30943.01237294+175
Japan Restoration Party12,262,22820.38406,942,35411.641454New
Democratic Party of Japan9,628,65316.003013,598,77422.812757−251
New Komeito Party7,116,47411.8322885,8811.49931+10
Your Party5,245,5868.72142,807,2454.71418+13
Japanese Communist Party3,689,1596.1384,700,2907.8808−1
Tomorrow Party of Japan3,423,9155.6972,992,3665.0229New
Social Democratic Party1,420,7902.361451,7620.7612−5
New Party Daichi346,8480.581315,6040.53010
Happiness Realization Party216,1500.36065,9830.11000
New Renaissance Party134,7810.22000
People's New Party70,8470.120117,1850.2011−2
New Party Nippon62,6970.1100−1
21st Century Japan Restoration Party17,7110.0300New
Natural Party7,8310.0100New
Ainu Party7,4950.0100New
Euthanasia Party2,6030.0000New
World Economic Community Party1,0110.00000
Independents1,006,4681.6955−1
Total60,179,888100.0018059,626,569100.003004800
Valid votes60,179,88897.6059,626,56896.69
Invalid/blank votes1,480,0812.402,040,9703.31
Total votes61,659,969100.0061,667,538100.00
Registered voters/turnout103,959,86659.31103,959,86659.32
Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, CLEA

By prefecture

[edit]
PrefectureTotal
seats
Seats won
LDPDPJJRPNKPYourTPJSDPPNPInd.
Aichi15132
Akita33
Aomori44
Chiba13112
Ehime44
Fukui33
Fukuoka11101
Fukushima541
Gifu55
Gunma55
Hiroshima761
Hokkaido12111
Hyōgo12822
Ibaraki7511
Ishikawa33
Iwate4121
Kagawa321
Kagoshima541
Kanagawa1814112
Kōchi33
Kumamoto541
Kyoto642
Mie532
Miyagi651
Miyazaki33
Nagano532
Nagasaki44
Nara431
Niigata66
Ōita33
Okayama541
Okinawa431
Osaka193124
Saga33
Saitama151311
Shiga44
Shimane22
Shizuoka862
Tochigi541
Tokushima33
Tokyo2521211
Tottori22
Toyama33
Wakayama321
Yamagata321
Yamaguchi44
Yamanashi3111
Total3002372714942115

By PR block

[edit]
PR blockTotal
seats
Seats won
LDPJRPDPJNKPYourJCPTPJSDPNPD
Chūgoku115222
Hokkaido831211
Hokuriku–Shinetsu1143211
Kinki (Kansai)2971034221
Kyushu2174331111
Northern Kanto206433211
Shikoku62211
Southern Kanto226542311
Tohoku145231111
Tōkai217442211
Tokyo175332211
Total18057403022148711

Aftermath

[edit]
Shinzo Abe is elected Prime Minister by the Diet, 26 December 2012.
Following the Diet vote, Emperor Akihito appoints Abe as the Prime Minister at the Imperial Palace in Chiyoda Ward, Tōkyō Metropolis on 26 December 2012. Yoshihiko Noda, outgoing Prime Minister, watches on.

As the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) won 294 seats and their allies, the New Komeito Party, 31 seats, a coalition of the two parties would be able to form a two-thirds majority in the House of Representatives, enabling them to overrule the House of Councillors.[18][19] The significant swing back towards conservative politics was attributed to economic anxieties, including fear of falling behind China.[18] Despite this landslide victory, Shinzo Abe acknowledged that his party won mainly because of voter antipathy towards the Democratic Party and not due to a resurgence in popularity for the LDP.[20][21]

The election was an unmitigated disaster for the Democratic Party, which lost three-quarters[22] of its 230 seats in the lower house to finish with just 57. In addition, seven members of the Cabinet lost their seats, the most ever in an election. Naoto Kan, who preceded Noda as prime minister, lost his constituency as well.[23] Overall, this marked the worst performance by a ruling party in the post–World War II era. As a result, Yoshihiko Noda resigned from his post as party president.[22]

The Tomorrow Party of Japan, which formed shortly before the election, consisted mostly of incumbents defecting from the Democratic Party. Most of these incumbents were unseated, causing the party to lose 86% of its strength only weeks after forming. Both the Japan Restoration Party and Your Party emerged as viable players in the Diet, while the traditional left parties Social Democratic Party and Japanese Communist Party continued to decline in strength and relevance.

The voter turnout of 59.3% was the lowest since World War II.[22]

Reactions and analysis

[edit]

The Liberal Democratic Party had campaigned on a tough stance on the Senkaku Islands dispute, leading to speculation as to how the new government would deal with the issue.[19] Abe made his party's position clear immediately following the election, stating that "[their] objective is to stop the challenge" from China with regards to ownership of the islands.[24] The re-election of the liberal conservative LDP raised concern in foreign media that Japan's relations with its neighbours – China and South Korea – would become strained, given the past visits to the Yasukuni Shrine by LDP prime ministers, the party's perceived de-emphasis of Japan's war crimes committed during World War II and their intention to amend the country's pacifist constitution to give more power to the Self-Defense Forces.[25][26][27] Abe was also in favor of retaining nuclear energy in the country.[18]

In response to the election, the Nikkei 225 Index increased by 1%, while the yen fell to ¥84.48 against the US dollar, the lowest rate in 20 months.[28] Furthermore, the yield on 20-year Japanese government bonds (JCBs) rose to 1.710% a day after the election. This marked its highest level in nearly eight months.[29]

United States President Barack Obama spoke to Abe via telephone to congratulate him on the results of the general election, and discussed ongoing efforts to enhance bilateral security cooperation as well as deepening economic ties.[30]

Voiding of election

[edit]

On 25 March 2013, the Hiroshima High Court ruled the election unconstitutional and the results void due to "the disparity in the value of one vote", which was up to 2.43 time the maximum constitutionally allowed disparity in some districts.[31][32] The decision is expected to be appealed to the Supreme Court,[33] and, if upheld, new elections must be held. The Supreme Court had previously ruled that the electoral system was unconstitutional without invalidating election results.[33] Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida said that government would give electoral reform new thought and examine the situation carefully in order to respond in the appropriate manner.[32]

See also

[edit]

References

[edit]
  1. ^ "Okada eyes Jan. dissolution of lower house". Yomiuri Shimbun. Jiji Press. 30 July 2012. Retrieved 14 November 2012.
  2. ^ Harlan, Chico (18 August 2012). "In Japan, new taxes levy political toll on Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda". The Washington Post. Retrieved 20 August 2012.
  3. ^ "Statistics Bureau Home Page/Chapter 4 Finance". Archived from the original on 5 January 2013. Retrieved 30 December 2012.
  4. ^ "Japan's Debt Challenge".
  5. ^ Schuman, Michael (6 April 2011). "A hard look at Japan's debt problem". Time. Retrieved 22 March 2018.
  6. ^ "Japan's national debt hits record 960 trillion yen - AJW by The Asahi Shimbun". Archived from the original on 2 November 2012. Retrieved 30 December 2012.
  7. ^ "Japan's Debt Sustains a Deflationary Depression". Bloomberg.
  8. ^ "UPDATE: Kaieda elected president of shattered DPJ - AJW by The Asahi Shimbun". Archived from the original on 31 December 2012. Retrieved 28 December 2012.
  9. ^ "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 30 March 2012. Retrieved 28 December 2012.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  10. ^ "Japan's 'third pole". Japantimes.co.jp. 16 November 2012. Retrieved 20 December 2012.
  11. ^ "New political party to be named 'Tachiagare Nippon' (Stand up Japan)" Archived 5 June 2011 at the Wayback Machine
  12. ^ Japan Today/Associated Press, "Ishihara, Hashimoto announce 'third force' in Japanese politics", Japan Today, 18 November 2012
  13. ^ Johnston, Eric, "Nippon Ishin no Kai: Local but with national outlook Archived 26 January 2016 at the Wayback Machine", Japan Times, 3 October 2012, p. 3
  14. ^ "New Kawamura-led party joins election fray". Yomiuri Shimbun. 24 November 2012. Retrieved 28 November 2012.
  15. ^ "Shiga's Kada readies party; Ozawa joins". Japantimes.co.jp. 28 November 2012. Retrieved 20 December 2012.
  16. ^ "2 Parties Merge With Japan Future". Ajw.asahi.com. Archived from the original on 30 November 2012. Retrieved 20 December 2012.
  17. ^ Yomiuri Shimbun: House of Representatives election 2012
  18. ^ a b c Nagano, Yuriko; Demick, Barbara (16 December 2012). "Japan conservatives win landslide election victory". Los Angeles Times. Retrieved 16 December 2012.
  19. ^ a b "Japan election: LDP's Shinzo Abe vows tough China line". BBC. 16 December 2012. Retrieved 16 December 2012.
  20. ^ Fackler, Martin (16 December 2012). "Japan Election Returns Power to Old Guard". The New York Times. Retrieved 17 December 2012.
  21. ^ Yoshida, Reiji (17 December 2012). "LDP aware voters just punished DPJ". The Japan Times. Retrieved 17 December 2012.
  22. ^ a b c Brinsley, John; Reynolds, Isabel (17 December 2012). "Two-Party Japan Democracy Undone in 39 Months as DPJ Falls". Bloomberg. Retrieved 17 December 2012.
  23. ^ "LDP flattens DPJ in bruising return to power". The Japan Times. 17 December 2012. Retrieved 17 December 2012.
  24. ^ Ryall, Julian; Irvine, Chris (16 December 2012). "Japan election winner fires early warning to China". The Daily Telegraph. London. Retrieved 17 December 2012.
  25. ^ "'The Senkaku islands are our territory': Japanese nationalists return to power in a landslide victory". National Post. Associated Press. 16 December 2012. Retrieved 18 December 2012.
  26. ^ Dickie, Mure (16 December 2012). "Rightwing revival raises regional dilemmas". Financial Times. Retrieved 18 December 2012. (subscription required)
  27. ^ Nakamoto, Michiyo; Dickie, Mure; Soble, Jonathan (16 December 2012). "LDP crushes rivals in Japanese poll". Financial Times. Retrieved 18 December 2012. (subscription required)
  28. ^ "Japan elections: Shares rise and yen weakens on Abe win". BBC News. 17 December 2012. Retrieved 17 December 2012.
  29. ^ "JGB 20-year yield hits 8-month high after Japan election". Reuters. 16 December 2012. Retrieved 17 December 2012.
  30. ^ "Readout of the President's Call with Liberal Democratic Party President Shinzo Abe of Japan". whitehouse.gov. 17 December 2012. Retrieved 18 December 2012 – via National Archives.
  31. ^ Yomiuri: Court rules lower house poll invalid / Vote disparity in Hiroshima 'too wide' (english)
  32. ^ a b "Hiroshima court rules Dec. election invalid over vote disparity". The Mainichi. Archived from the original on 13 April 2013. Retrieved 26 March 2013.
  33. ^ a b Sekiguchi, Toko (25 March 2013). "Hiroshima Court Rules Election Invalid". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved 22 March 2018.
[edit]

    2012 Japanese general election

    16 December 2012

    All 480 seats in the House of Representatives
    241 seats needed for a majority
    Turnout59.32% (Decrease9.87pp; Const. votes)
    59.31% (Decrease9.88pp; PR votes)
     First partySecond partyThird party
     
    LeaderShinzō AbeYoshihiko NodaShintaro Ishihara
    PartyLDPDemocraticRestoration
    Last election119 seats308 seatsDid not exist
    Seats before11823011
    Seats won2945754
    Seat changeIncrease 175Decrease 251New
    Constituency vote25,643,30913,598,7746,942,354
    % and swing43.01% (Increase4.33pp)22.81% (Decrease24.62pp)11.64% (New)
    Regional vote16,624,4579,268,65312,262,228
    % and swing27.79% (Increase1.06pp)15.49% (Decrease26.92pp)20.50% (New)

     Fourth partyFifth partySixth party
     
    LeaderNatsuo YamaguchiYoshimi WatanabeYukiko Kada
    PartyKomeitoYourTomorrow
    Last election21 seats5 seatsDid not exist
    Seats before21861
    Seats won31189
    Seat changeIncrease 10Increase 13New
    Constituency vote885,8812,807,2452,992,366
    % and swing1.49% (Increase0.38pp)4.71% (Increase3.84pp)5.02% (New)
    Regional vote7,116,4745,245,5863,423,915
    % and swing11.90% (Increase0.45pp)8.77% (Increase4.50pp)5.72% (New)

     Seventh partyEighth party
     
    LeaderKazuo ShiiMizuho Fukushima
    PartyJCPSocial Democratic
    Last election9 seats7 seats
    Seats before95
    Seats won82
    Seat changeDecrease 1Decrease 5
    Constituency vote4,700,290451,762
    % and swing7.88% (Increase3.66pp)0.76% (Decrease1.19pp)
    Regional vote3,689,1591,420,790
    % and swing6.17% (Decrease0.86pp)2.36% (Decrease1.91pp)

    Districts and PR districts shaded according to winners' vote strength

    Prime Minister before election

    Yoshihiko Noda
    Democratic

    Elected Prime Minister

    Shinzo Abe
    LDP

    General elections were held in Japan on 16 December 2012. The Liberal Democratic Party won a landslide victory, ejecting the Democratic Party from power after three years. It was the fourth worst defeat suffered by a ruling party in Japanese history.

    Voting took place in all representatives' constituencies of Japan including proportional blocks, in order to appoint Members of Diet to seats in the House of Representatives, the lower house of the National Diet of Japan.

    In July 2012, it was reported that the deputy prime minister Katsuya Okada had approached the Liberal Democratic Party to sound them out about dissolving the House of Representatives and holding the election in January 2013.[1] An agreement was reached in August to dissolve the Diet and hold early elections "shortly" following the passage of a bill to raise the national consumption tax.[2] Some right-wing observers asserted that as the result of introducing the consumption tax to repay the Japanese public debt,[3][4][5][6][7] the DPJ lost around 75% of its pre-election seats.[8][9]

    Background

    The LDP had governed Japan for all but three years since 1955. However, in the 2009 election, the LDP suffered the worst defeat of a sitting government in modern Japanese history. Due to the characteristics of the Japanese election system, DPJ candidates won 308 seats in the House of Representatives (64.2% of seats), enabling Yukio Hatoyama to become prime minister. Since then, Japan had had two other prime ministers, Naoto Kan and Yoshihiko Noda. On 16 November, Noda dissolved parliament, thus allowing for a new election in a month's time, citing the lack of funds to carry on governmental functions and the need for an emergency budget.

    Dissatisfaction with the DPJ-led government and the former LDP-led government led to the formation of several grassroots movements, collectively known as the "third pole," to counter the two major parties.[10] The former Governor of Tokyo Shintarō Ishihara announced the renaming and reformation of the Sunrise Party on 14 November 2012; Ishihara co-lead the party with Takeo Hiranuma.[11] On 17 November 2012 Mayor of Osaka Tōru Hashimoto and former Tokyo Governor Shintarō Ishihara announced the merger of the Japan Restoration Party and the Sunrise Party as a third force to contend the 16 December 2012 general election.[12] It is Japan's first national political party that is based outside of Tokyo.[13]

    On 23 November Mayor of Nagoya Takashi Kawamura, former state minister Shizuka Kamei and former farm minister Masahiko Yamada joined forces together to launch Tax Cuts Japan – Oppose TPP – Zero Nuclear Party as another "third pole" national political party.[14] On 28 November, the Governor of Shiga Yukiko Kada in Ōtsu announced the establishment of an anti-nuclear and gender equality focused party known as the Tomorrow Party of Japan, becoming the second national party based outside of Tokyo. Concurrently, the president of DPJ splinter group People's Life First, Ichirō Ozawa, dissolved the party, merging it into the Tomorrow Party. Tax Cuts Japan – Oppose TPP – Zero Nuclear Party and Japan Future Party attempted to merge with the aim of further countering the major and pro-nuclear parties.[15] On 27 November Tax Cuts Japan – Oppose TPP – Zero Nuclear Party officially announced a merger with Tomorrow, with party co-leader Mashahiko Yamada saying, "We would also like to raise our hands in joining because our ways of thinking are the same."[16]

    Opinion polls

    Graph of poll results since 2009
      Democratic
      Liberal Democratic
      New Komeito
      Communist
      Social Democratic
      Your Party
      Others incl. NPN, PNP, NRP and SP
      No Party
    Source: NHK
    Graph of the current Cabinet Approval/Disapproval Ratings

    Party polling for the 180 proportional seats

    Poll sourceDate(s)
    administered
    Undecided or declined
    DPJLDPJRPPLF

    TPJ
    NKPJCPYPSDP
    Asahi Shimbun15–16 November 201244%16%23%6%1%3%2%2%1%
    Yomiuri Shimbun16–17 November 201243%13%22%13%
    Asahi Shimbun17–18 November 201246%15%23%16%4%
    Kyodo News17–18 November 201243%10.8%23%
    Yomiuri Shimbun23–25 November 201210%25%14%2%6%2%
    Kyodo News [1]24–25 November 201245%8.4%18.7%10.3%2%4%3%
    Asahi Shimbun24–25 November 201241%13%23%9%2%4%3%
    Nikkei Business Daily28 November 201213%23%15%5%4%
    Kyodo News1–2 December 20129.3%18.4%10.4%3.5%4.8%
    Asahi Shimbun1–2 December 201241%15%20%9%3%4%3%3%1%
    Yomiuri Shimbun30 Nov.-2 Dec 201213%19%13%5%5%
    NHK7–9 December 201210%21%11%
    Yomiuri Shimbun7–9 December 201212%29%11%3%
    Asahi Shimbun8–9 December 201243%14%22%8%2%5%4%2%
    Kyodo News12–13 December 201240%11%23%10%

    PM polling

    Poll sourceDate(s)
    administered
    Noda
    DPJ
    Abe
    LDP
    Ishihara
    JRP
    Kyodo News3–4 November 201229.3%40%
    Asahi Shimbun15–16 November 201231%33%
    Yomiuri Shimbun16–17 November 201231%37%
    Kyodo News17–18 November 201232.1%35%
    Yomiuri Shimbun23–25 November 201219%29%22%
    Kyodo News [2]24–25 November 201230%33.9%
    Yomiuri Shimbun30 Nov.-2 Dec 201221%28%
    NHK7–9 December 201219%28%
    Kyodo News8–9 December 201231%39%
    Kyodo News12–13 December 201229%34%

    Pre-election composition

    As of official announcement (kōji [=deadline for candidate registration, legal campaign start, start of early voting on following day]) on 4 December[17] – note that the government had lost its majority, already slim at the time of dissolution of the House of Representatives (16 November), due to further defections during the positioning of candidates for the election.

    1391071233
    LDP & NKPOther oppositionVIncumbent government (DPJ & PNP)

    Results

    Constituency Cartogram
    PartyProportionalConstituencyTotal
    seats
    +/–
    Votes%SeatsVotes%Seats
    Liberal Democratic Party16,624,45727.625725,643,30943.01237294+175
    Japan Restoration Party12,262,22820.38406,942,35411.641454New
    Democratic Party of Japan9,628,65316.003013,598,77422.812757−251
    New Komeito Party7,116,47411.8322885,8811.49931+10
    Your Party5,245,5868.72142,807,2454.71418+13
    Japanese Communist Party3,689,1596.1384,700,2907.8808−1
    Tomorrow Party of Japan3,423,9155.6972,992,3665.0229New
    Social Democratic Party1,420,7902.361451,7620.7612−5
    New Party Daichi346,8480.581315,6040.53010
    Happiness Realization Party216,1500.36065,9830.11000
    New Renaissance Party134,7810.22000
    People's New Party70,8470.120117,1850.2011−2
    New Party Nippon62,6970.1100−1
    21st Century Japan Restoration Party17,7110.0300New
    Natural Party7,8310.0100New
    Ainu Party7,4950.0100New
    Euthanasia Party2,6030.0000New
    World Economic Community Party1,0110.00000
    Independents1,006,4681.6955−1
    Total60,179,888100.0018059,626,569100.003004800
    Valid votes60,179,88897.6059,626,56896.69
    Invalid/blank votes1,480,0812.402,040,9703.31
    Total votes61,659,969100.0061,667,538100.00
    Registered voters/turnout103,959,86659.31103,959,86659.32
    Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, CLEA

    By prefecture

    PrefectureTotal
    seats
    Seats won
    LDPDPJJRPNKPYourTPJSDPPNPInd.
    Aichi15132
    Akita33
    Aomori44
    Chiba13112
    Ehime44
    Fukui33
    Fukuoka11101
    Fukushima541
    Gifu55
    Gunma55
    Hiroshima761
    Hokkaido12111
    Hyōgo12822
    Ibaraki7511
    Ishikawa33
    Iwate4121
    Kagawa321
    Kagoshima541
    Kanagawa1814112
    Kōchi33
    Kumamoto541
    Kyoto642
    Mie532
    Miyagi651
    Miyazaki33
    Nagano532
    Nagasaki44
    Nara431
    Niigata66
    Ōita33
    Okayama541
    Okinawa431
    Osaka193124
    Saga33
    Saitama151311
    Shiga44
    Shimane22
    Shizuoka862
    Tochigi541
    Tokushima33
    Tokyo2521211
    Tottori22
    Toyama33
    Wakayama321
    Yamagata321
    Yamaguchi44
    Yamanashi3111
    Total3002372714942115

    By PR block

    PR blockTotal
    seats
    Seats won
    LDPJRPDPJNKPYourJCPTPJSDPNPD
    Chūgoku115222
    Hokkaido831211
    Hokuriku–Shinetsu1143211
    Kinki (Kansai)2971034221
    Kyushu2174331111
    Northern Kanto206433211
    Shikoku62211
    Southern Kanto226542311
    Tohoku145231111
    Tōkai217442211
    Tokyo175332211
    Total18057403022148711

    Aftermath

    Shinzo Abe is elected Prime Minister by the Diet, 26 December 2012.
    Following the Diet vote, Emperor Akihito appoints Abe as the Prime Minister at the Imperial Palace in Chiyoda Ward, Tōkyō Metropolis on 26 December 2012. Yoshihiko Noda, outgoing Prime Minister, watches on.

    As the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) won 294 seats and their allies, the New Komeito Party, 31 seats, a coalition of the two parties would be able to form a two-thirds majority in the House of Representatives, enabling them to overrule the House of Councillors.[18][19] The significant swing back towards conservative politics was attributed to economic anxieties, including fear of falling behind China.[18] Despite this landslide victory, Shinzo Abe acknowledged that his party won mainly because of voter antipathy towards the Democratic Party and not due to a resurgence in popularity for the LDP.[20][21]

    The election was an unmitigated disaster for the Democratic Party, which lost three-quarters[22] of its 230 seats in the lower house to finish with just 57. In addition, seven members of the Cabinet lost their seats, the most ever in an election. Naoto Kan, who preceded Noda as prime minister, lost his constituency as well.[23] Overall, this marked the worst performance by a ruling party in the post–World War II era. As a result, Yoshihiko Noda resigned from his post as party president.[22]

    The Tomorrow Party of Japan, which formed shortly before the election, consisted mostly of incumbents defecting from the Democratic Party. Most of these incumbents were unseated, causing the party to lose 86% of its strength only weeks after forming. Both the Japan Restoration Party and Your Party emerged as viable players in the Diet, while the traditional left parties Social Democratic Party and Japanese Communist Party continued to decline in strength and relevance.

    The voter turnout of 59.3% was the lowest since World War II.[22]

    Reactions and analysis

    The Liberal Democratic Party had campaigned on a tough stance on the Senkaku Islands dispute, leading to speculation as to how the new government would deal with the issue.[19] Abe made his party's position clear immediately following the election, stating that "[their] objective is to stop the challenge" from China with regards to ownership of the islands.[24] The re-election of the liberal conservative LDP raised concern in foreign media that Japan's relations with its neighbours – China and South Korea – would become strained, given the past visits to the Yasukuni Shrine by LDP prime ministers, the party's perceived de-emphasis of Japan's war crimes committed during World War II and their intention to amend the country's pacifist constitution to give more power to the Self-Defense Forces.[25][26][27] Abe was also in favor of retaining nuclear energy in the country.[18]

    In response to the election, the Nikkei 225 Index increased by 1%, while the yen fell to ¥84.48 against the US dollar, the lowest rate in 20 months.[28] Furthermore, the yield on 20-year Japanese government bonds (JCBs) rose to 1.710% a day after the election. This marked its highest level in nearly eight months.[29]

    United States President Barack Obama spoke to Abe via telephone to congratulate him on the results of the general election, and discussed ongoing efforts to enhance bilateral security cooperation as well as deepening economic ties.[30]

    Voiding of election

    On 25 March 2013, the Hiroshima High Court ruled the election unconstitutional and the results void due to "the disparity in the value of one vote", which was up to 2.43 time the maximum constitutionally allowed disparity in some districts.[31][32] The decision is expected to be appealed to the Supreme Court,[33] and, if upheld, new elections must be held. The Supreme Court had previously ruled that the electoral system was unconstitutional without invalidating election results.[33] Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida said that government would give electoral reform new thought and examine the situation carefully in order to respond in the appropriate manner.[32]

    See also

    References

    1. ^ "Okada eyes Jan. dissolution of lower house". Yomiuri Shimbun. Jiji Press. 30 July 2012. Retrieved 14 November 2012.
    2. ^ Harlan, Chico (18 August 2012). "In Japan, new taxes levy political toll on Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda". The Washington Post. Retrieved 20 August 2012.
    3. ^ "Statistics Bureau Home Page/Chapter 4 Finance". Archived from the original on 5 January 2013. Retrieved 30 December 2012.
    4. ^ "Japan's Debt Challenge".
    5. ^ Schuman, Michael (6 April 2011). "A hard look at Japan's debt problem". Time. Retrieved 22 March 2018.
    6. ^ "Japan's national debt hits record 960 trillion yen - AJW by The Asahi Shimbun". Archived from the original on 2 November 2012. Retrieved 30 December 2012.
    7. ^ "Japan's Debt Sustains a Deflationary Depression". Bloomberg.
    8. ^ "UPDATE: Kaieda elected president of shattered DPJ - AJW by The Asahi Shimbun". Archived from the original on 31 December 2012. Retrieved 28 December 2012.
    9. ^ "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 30 March 2012. Retrieved 28 December 2012.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
    10. ^ "Japan's 'third pole". Japantimes.co.jp. 16 November 2012. Retrieved 20 December 2012.
    11. ^ "New political party to be named 'Tachiagare Nippon' (Stand up Japan)" Archived 5 June 2011 at the Wayback Machine
    12. ^ Japan Today/Associated Press, "Ishihara, Hashimoto announce 'third force' in Japanese politics", Japan Today, 18 November 2012
    13. ^ Johnston, Eric, "Nippon Ishin no Kai: Local but with national outlook Archived 26 January 2016 at the Wayback Machine", Japan Times, 3 October 2012, p. 3
    14. ^ "New Kawamura-led party joins election fray". Yomiuri Shimbun. 24 November 2012. Retrieved 28 November 2012.
    15. ^ "Shiga's Kada readies party; Ozawa joins". Japantimes.co.jp. 28 November 2012. Retrieved 20 December 2012.
    16. ^ "2 Parties Merge With Japan Future". Ajw.asahi.com. Archived from the original on 30 November 2012. Retrieved 20 December 2012.
    17. ^ Yomiuri Shimbun: House of Representatives election 2012
    18. ^ a b c Nagano, Yuriko; Demick, Barbara (16 December 2012). "Japan conservatives win landslide election victory". Los Angeles Times. Retrieved 16 December 2012.
    19. ^ a b "Japan election: LDP's Shinzo Abe vows tough China line". BBC. 16 December 2012. Retrieved 16 December 2012.
    20. ^ Fackler, Martin (16 December 2012). "Japan Election Returns Power to Old Guard". The New York Times. Retrieved 17 December 2012.
    21. ^ Yoshida, Reiji (17 December 2012). "LDP aware voters just punished DPJ". The Japan Times. Retrieved 17 December 2012.
    22. ^ a b c Brinsley, John; Reynolds, Isabel (17 December 2012). "Two-Party Japan Democracy Undone in 39 Months as DPJ Falls". Bloomberg. Retrieved 17 December 2012.
    23. ^ "LDP flattens DPJ in bruising return to power". The Japan Times. 17 December 2012. Retrieved 17 December 2012.
    24. ^ Ryall, Julian; Irvine, Chris (16 December 2012). "Japan election winner fires early warning to China". The Daily Telegraph. London. Retrieved 17 December 2012.
    25. ^ "'The Senkaku islands are our territory': Japanese nationalists return to power in a landslide victory". National Post. Associated Press. 16 December 2012. Retrieved 18 December 2012.
    26. ^ Dickie, Mure (16 December 2012). "Rightwing revival raises regional dilemmas". Financial Times. Retrieved 18 December 2012. (subscription required)
    27. ^ Nakamoto, Michiyo; Dickie, Mure; Soble, Jonathan (16 December 2012). "LDP crushes rivals in Japanese poll". Financial Times. Retrieved 18 December 2012. (subscription required)
    28. ^ "Japan elections: Shares rise and yen weakens on Abe win". BBC News. 17 December 2012. Retrieved 17 December 2012.
    29. ^ "JGB 20-year yield hits 8-month high after Japan election". Reuters. 16 December 2012. Retrieved 17 December 2012.
    30. ^ "Readout of the President's Call with Liberal Democratic Party President Shinzo Abe of Japan". whitehouse.gov. 17 December 2012. Retrieved 18 December 2012 – via National Archives.
    31. ^ Yomiuri: Court rules lower house poll invalid / Vote disparity in Hiroshima 'too wide' (english)
    32. ^ a b "Hiroshima court rules Dec. election invalid over vote disparity". The Mainichi. Archived from the original on 13 April 2013. Retrieved 26 March 2013.
    33. ^ a b Sekiguchi, Toko (25 March 2013). "Hiroshima Court Rules Election Invalid". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved 22 March 2018.
    • Election results (NHK World)
    • Detailed results (Yomiuri Shimbun) (Japanese)
    Retrieved from "https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2012_Japanese_general_election&oldid=1320754875"