44th Manitoba general election

Provincial election

44th Manitoba general election

On or before October 5, 2027
57 seats of the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba 29 seats are needed for a majority
LIB Leader Wab Kinew Obby Khan Willard Reaves Party New Democratic Progressive Conservative Liberal Leader since September 16, 2017 April 26, 2025 September 29, 2025 Leader's seat Fort Rouge Fort Whyte None[a] Last election 34 seats, 45.63% 22 seats, 41.86% 1 seat, 10.63% Current seats 34 21 1 Seats needed 8 28
Incumbent Premier Wab Kinew New Democratic

The 44th Manitoba general election will be held on or before October 5, 2027, to elect 57 members to the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba.

Background

Under Manitoba's Elections Act, a general election must be held no later than the first Tuesday of October in the fourth calendar year following the previous election.^[1] As the previous election was held in 2023, the latest possible date for the election is October 5, 2027.^[2] The election will be held under first-past-the-post voting.

Current standings

43rd Manitoba Legislature – Movement in seats held up to the election (2023-present)

Party		2023	Gain/(loss) due to			Current
			Resignation or death of MLA	Removed from caucus	By-election
	New Democratic	34	(1)	(1)	2	34
	Progressive Conservative	22	(2)		1	21
	Liberal	1				1
	Independent	–		1		1
Total		57	(3)	–	3	57

Incumbents not standing for re-election

Electoral district	Incumbent at dissolution and subsequent party nominee			New MLA
Turtle Mountain		Doyle Piwniuk[3]
Steinbach		Kelvin Goertzen[4]
Springfield-Ritchot		Ron Schuler[5]

Timeline

Changes in seats held (2023–present)

Seat	Before				Change
	Date	Member	Party	Reason	Date	Member	Party
Tuxedo	May 6, 2024	Heather Stefanson	█ PC	Resignation[6]	July 8, 2024[7]	Carla Compton	█ New Democratic
Fort Garry	September 16, 2024	Mark Wasyliw	█ New Democratic	Removed from caucus[8]			█ Independent
Transcona	January 14, 2025	Nello Altomare	█ New Democratic	Died in office	March 18, 2025	Shannon Corbett	█ New Democratic
Spruce Woods	March 24, 2025	Grant Jackson	█ PC	Resigned to run federally	August 26, 2025	Colleen Robbins	█ PC

2023

• October 3: The 2023 Manitoba general election is held, resulting in a majority for the New Democratic Party. The Progressive Conservative Party becomes the Official Opposition, and the Liberal Party is reduced to one seat. PC leader Heather Stefanson announced her intent to resign once her successor is chosen, while she will remain as MLA for Tuxedo. Dougald Lamont resigns as Liberal leader on election night after he loses his seat of Saint Boniface.^[9]
• October 17: Cindy Lamoureux, MLA for Tyndall Park, is selected as interim leader of the Manitoba Liberal Party.^[10]
• October 18: The NDP Cabinet is sworn in.^[11]

2024

• January 18: Wayne Ewasko is chosen as the interim leader of the Progressive Conservative Party, replacing outgoing leader Heather Stefanson.
• April 25: Heather Stefanson announces her intention to vacate her seat on May 6. A by-election will be held to fill the seat on June 18.
• June 18: New Democrat Carla Compton wins the Tuxedo by-election, gaining the seat from the Progressive Conservatives.
• September 16: Mark Wasyliw, MLA for Fort Garry, is removed from the NDP caucus and will sit as an independent.

2025

• January 14: Education and Early Childhood Learning Minister and MLA for Transcona Nello Altomare dies in office.
• March 18: New Democrat Shannon Corbett wins the Transcona by-election, holding the seat for the NDP.
• March 24: Progressive Conservative MLA for Spruce Woods, Grant Jackson resigns his seat to run for the federal Conservatives in Brandon—Souris.
• April 26: Obby Khan is elected as leader of the Progressive Conservative Party.
• August 26: Progressive Conservative Colleen Robbins wins the Spruce Woods by-election, holding the seat for the Progressive Conservatives.
• September 29: Willard Reaves is acclaimed as leader of the Liberal Party.^[12]
• November 12: Progressive Conservative MLA for Turtle Mountain, Doyle Piwniuk announces he will not seek re-election in the 44th General Election.
• December 10: Progressive Conservative MLA for Steinbach and 23rd Premier of Manitoba Kelvin Goertzen announces he will not seek re-election in the 44th General Election.
• December 17: Progressive Conservative MLA for Springfield-Ritchot and former Cabinet Minister Ron Schuler announces he will not seek re-election in the 44th General Election.

Opinion polling

Overall Polling with a local regression (LOESS) trend line for each party and a monthly average.

Voting intentions in Manitoba since the 2023 election
Polling firm	Dates conducted	Source	NDP	PC	Liberal	Keystone	Green	Others	Margin of error	Sample size	Polling method	Lead
Probe Research	Nov 25 – Dec 10, 2025	[p 1][p 2]	53%	32%	9%	2%	4%	0%	3.1%	1,000	mixed	21%
Angus Reid	Nov 26 – Dec 1, 2025	[p 3]	45%	46%	7%	–	1%	1%	5%	315	online	1%
	September 29, 2025	Willard Reaves is acclaimed as leader of the Manitoba Liberal Party
Probe Research	Sep 4–14, 2025	[p 4]	53%	34%	8%	1%	4%	1%	3.1%	1,000	mixed	19%
Angus Reid	Aug 28 – Sep 5, 2025	[p 5][p 6]	48%	41%	10%	–	0%	2%	5%	334	online	7%
Probe Research	May 28 – Jun 10, 2025	[p 7]	57%	32%	8%	2%	1%	0%	3.1%	1,000	mixed	25%
	April 26, 2025	Obby Khan is elected leader of the Manitoba Progressive Conservative Party
Probe Research	Mar 4–16, 2025	[p 8]	57%	33%	8%	1%	1%	0%	3.1%	1,000	mixed	24%
Probe Research	Nov 26 – Dec 10, 2024	[p 9]	53%	34%	6%	2%	2%	2%	3.1%	1,000	mixed	19%
Probe Research	Sep 5–15, 2024	[p 10]	56%	34%	4%	3%	1%	1%	3.1%	1,000	mixed	22%
Probe Research	May 28 – Jun 9, 2024	[p 11][p 12]	51%	38%	6%	1%	1%	1%	3.1%	1,000	mixed	13%
Probe Research	Mar 5–18, 2024	[p 13][p 14]	49%	37%	8%	1%	2%	2%	3.1%	1,000	mixed	12%
Probe Research	Nov 22 – Dec 1, 2023	[p 15][p 16]	51%	38%	7%	1%	2%	1%	3.1%	1,000	mixed	13%
2023 general election	October 3, 2023	[p 17]	45.63%	41.86%	10.63%	0.77%	0.74%	0.37%	—	—	—	3.77%
Polling firm	Dates conducted	Source						Others	Margin of error	Sample size	Polling method	Lead
			NDP	PC	Liberal	Keystone	Green

References

1. Elections Act, CCSM , c. E30, s. 49.1(2)
2. CCSM c. E30, s. 49.1(3)
3. "Turtle Mountain MLA Doyle Piwniuk won't seek re-election". CBC News. November 12, 2025. Retrieved November 14, 2025.
4. "Steinbach MLA will not seek nomination for next provincial election". www.mysteinbach.ca. Retrieved December 10, 2025.
5. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/tory-mla-ron-schuler-will-not-seek-reelection-9.7019542
6. "Former Manitoba premier Heather Stefanson resigning as MLA". CBC News. April 25, 2024.
7. "2024 Tuxedo By-election". Elections Manitoba. Retrieved June 18, 2024.
8. "MLA Mark Wasyliw removed immediately from NDP caucus, claims Premier Kinew is a 'bully'". CBC News. September 16, 2024.
9. Hoye, Bryce (October 3, 2023). "Solid NDP win cements Kinew as 1st First Nations premier in Manitoba history". CBC News. Retrieved October 3, 2023.
10. The Canadian Press (October 17, 2023). "Lone Manitoba Liberal MLA Cindy Lamoureux named party's interim leader". CBC News. Retrieved October 17, 2023.
11. Petz, Sarah (October 18, 2023). "Wab Kinew officially sworn in as Manitoba's 1st First Nations premier". CBC News. Retrieved October 18, 2023.
12. "Former Blue Bomber Willard Reaves named new leader of Manitoba Liberal Party". CBC News. September 29, 2025. Retrieved September 30, 2025.

1. Reaves ran in Fort Whyte in 2022 and 2023.

Opinion poll sources

1. "Manitoba's Political Scene Ends 2025 On A Stable Note". December 19, 2025. Retrieved December 19, 2025.
2. "Omni 2512 ES prov tables.spo" (PDF). Probe Research. Retrieved December 19, 2025.
3. "Government satisfaction scores fall like winter snow as Canadians blanketed in cost-of-living challenges". Angus Reid Institute. December 17, 2025. Retrieved December 19, 2025.
4. "NDP Support Remains High, But Ebbs Slightly As PCs Recover (Sept. 2025 Manitoba Politics)". Probe Research. September 22, 2025. Retrieved September 22, 2025.
5. "Cross-Canada Outlook – Provincial Issues, Politics, and Performance: Manitoba". Angus Reid Institute. September 12, 2025. Retrieved September 12, 2025.
6. "2025.09.11_Cross_canada_Press_release_tables.pdf" (PDF). Angus Reid Institute. September 12, 2025. Retrieved September 12, 2025.
7. "New PC Leader, Same Result - So Far (June 2025 Manitoba Politics)". Probe Research. June 16, 2025. Retrieved September 22, 2025.
8. "Provincial NDP Support Continues to Rise in Winnipeg (March 2025 Provincial Politics)". Probe Research. March 25, 2025. Retrieved March 28, 2025.
9. "Kinew Government Ends 2024 On A High Note (Dec. 2024 Provincial Politics)". Probe Research. September 26, 2024. Retrieved November 26, 2024.
10. "Honeymoon Continues for Manitoba's NDP (Sept. 2024 Provincial Politics)". Probe Research. September 26, 2024. Retrieved November 26, 2024.
11. "NDP Extends Support Within Winnipeg, Across Manitoba (June 2024 Omnibus)". Probe Research. June 14, 2024. Retrieved June 14, 2024.
12. "Omni 2406 ES prov tables.spo" (PDF). Probe Research. Retrieved June 14, 2024.
13. "March 2024 Manitoba Politics". Probe Research. March 26, 2024. Retrieved March 28, 2024.
14. "Omni 2403 ES prov tables.spo" (PDF). Probe Research. Retrieved March 28, 2024.
15. "Manitoba Provincial Politics: December 2023 Probe Omnibus Survey" (PDF). Probe Research. December 1, 2023. Retrieved December 15, 2023.
16. "Omni 2312 ES prov tables.pdf" (PDF). Probe Research. Retrieved March 28, 2024.
17. Official Results

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