2012 Missouri gubernatorial election

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2012 Missouri gubernatorial election
← 2008
November 6, 2012 (2012-11-06)
2016 →
 
NomineeJay NixonDave Spence
PartyDemocraticRepublican
Popular vote1,494,0561,160,265
Percentage54.77%42.53%
Nixon:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      80–90%
Spence:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%
Governor before election

Jay Nixon
Democratic

Elected Governor

Jay Nixon
Democratic

The 2012 Missouri gubernatorial election was held on November 6, 2012, to elect the Governor of Missouri. Incumbent Democratic Governor Jay Nixon won re-election against the Republican nominee, businessman Dave Spence, despite incumbent President Barack Obama losing Missouri on the same day to Republican nominee Mitt Romney. As of 2025, this is the last time a Democrat won the governorship of Missouri and the last time that a governor and lieutenant governor of different political parties were simultaneously elected in Missouri. Primary elections took place on August 5, 2012.

Democratic primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]
  • William Campbell[2]
  • Clay Thunderhawk[2]

Results

[edit]
Democratic primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticJay Nixon (incumbent) 269,865 86.0%
DemocraticWilliam Campbell25,7218.2%
DemocraticClay Thunderhawk18,2285.8%
Total votes313,814 100.0%

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]
  • Bill Randles, businessman and corporate defense lawyer[3]
  • Fred Sauer, investment executive and anti-abortion activist[2]
  • John Weiler[2]

Polling

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s) administeredSample
size		Margin of
error		Bill
Randles		Fred
Sauer		Dave
Spence		John
Weiler		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[4]August 4–5, 2012590± 4.0%15%12%42%3%29%
Mason-Dixon[5]July 23–25, 2012400± 5.0%15%1%41%3%40%
Public Policy Polling[6]May 24–27, 2012430± 4.7%11%4%32%1%43%
Public Policy Polling[7]January 27–29, 2012574± 4.1%15%—11%—74%

Results

[edit]
Republican primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanDave Spence 333,578 59.9%
RepublicanBill Randles90,65116.3%
RepublicanFred Sauer83,69515.0%
RepublicanJohn Weiler49,0068.8%
Total votes556,930 100.0%

Libertarian primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Denied ballot access

[edit]
  • Leonard Steinman[2]

Results

[edit]
Libertarian primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
LibertarianJim Higgins 2,500 100.0%
Total votes2,500 100.0%

General election

[edit]

Debates

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[8]Lean DNovember 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball[9]Likely DNovember 5, 2012
Inside Elections[10]Likely DNovember 2, 2012
Real Clear Politics[11]Lean DNovember 5, 2012

Polling

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s) administeredSample
size		Margin of
error		Jay
Nixon (D)		Dave
Spence (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling[12]November 2–3, 2012835± 3.4%53%45%—2%
SurveyUSA[13]October 28–November 3, 2012589± 4.1%48%39%5%8%
Mason-Dixon[14]October 23–25, 2012625± 4%48%42%—9%
Public Policy Polling[15]October 19–21, 2012582± 4.1%51%40%—8%
Public Policy Polling[16]October 1–3, 2012700± 3.7%54%35%—12%
Public Policy Polling[17]August 20, 2012500± 4.4%46%37%—16%
Survey USA[18]August 9–12, 2012585± 4.1%51%37%5%6%
Chilenski Strategies[19]August 8, 2012663± 3.8%53%39%—9%
Mason-Dixon[5]July 23–25, 2012625± 4.0%48%39%—13%
Public Policy Polling[6]May 24–27, 2012602± 4.0%45%34%—21%
Public Policy Polling[20]January 27–29, 2012582± 4.1%47%27%—26%
Hypothetical polling

Republican primary

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Peter
Kinder		Bill
Randles		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[21]September 9–12, 2011400± 4.9%34%14%53%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Peter
Kinder		Someone
else		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[21]September 9–12, 2011400± 4.9%22%35%43%

General election

Poll sourceDate(s) administeredSample
size		Margin of
error		Jay
Nixon (D)		Bill
Randles (R)		OtherUndecided
Mason-Dixon[5]July 23–25, 2012625± 4.0%50%35%—15%
Public Policy Polling[6]May 24–27, 2012602± 4.0%46%32%—22%
Public Policy Polling[20]January 27–29, 2012582± 4.1%47%29%—24%
Public Policy Polling[22]September 9–12, 2011632± 3.9%45%24%—30%
Poll sourceDate(s) administeredSample
size		Margin of
error		Jay
Nixon (D)		Matt
Blunt (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling[22]September 9–12, 2011632± 3.9%50%37%—13%
Public Policy Polling[23]April 28-May 1, 2011555± 3.9%48%38%—13%
Poll sourceDate(s) administeredSample
size		Margin of
error		Jay
Nixon (D)		John
Danforth (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling[22]September 9–12, 2011632± 3.9%39%45%—17%
Poll sourceDate(s) administeredSample
size		Margin of
error		Jay
Nixon (D)		Kenny
Hulshof (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling[23]April 28-May 1, 2011555± 3.9%51%34%—15%
Poll sourceDate(s) administeredSample
size		Margin of
error		Jay
Nixon (D)		Peter
Kinder (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling[22]September 9–12, 2011632± 3.9%50%31%—18%
Public Policy Polling[23]April 28-May 1, 2011555± 3.9%48%34%—18%
Public Policy Polling[24]March 3–6, 2011612± 4.0%45%38%—17%
Public Policy Polling[25]Nov. 29-December 1, 2010515± 4.3%47%39%—14%
Poll sourceDate(s) administeredSample
size		Margin of
error		Jay
Nixon (D)		Sarah
Steelman (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling[25]Nov. 29-December 1, 2010515± 4.3%46%35%—19%
Poll sourceDate(s) administeredSample
size		Margin of
error		Jay
Nixon (D)		Jim
Talent (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling[22]September 9–12, 2011632± 3.9%47%38%—14%

Results

[edit]

Nixon won by a comfortable 12.3% margin, though this was somewhat closer than his 2008 victory. Even with President Barack Obama losing the state by a nine-point margin, Nixon and Senator Claire McCaskill both won reelection easily. Like his Senatorial colleague, Nixon was able to get a huge number of votes from rural areas. Both Nixon and McCaskill were declared the winners of their respective races even before the known Democratic strongholds of St. Louis and Kansas City came in.

Missouri gubernatorial election, 2012[26]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
DemocraticJay Nixon (incumbent) 1,494,056 54.77% −3.63%
RepublicanDave Spence1,160,26542.53%+3.04%
LibertarianJim Higgins73,5092.70%+1.59%
Write-in530.00%0.00%
Total votes2,727,883 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

[edit]

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

[edit]

By congressional district

[edit]

Nixon won five of eight congressional districts, including three that elected Republicans.[27]

DistrictNixonSpenceRepresentative
1st81.38%13.21%Lacy Clay
2nd50.67%47.37%Todd Akin (112th Congress)
Ann Wagner (113th Congress)
3rd48.20%49.08%Russ Carnahan (112th Congress)
Blaine Luetkemeyer (113th Congress)
4th49.16%47.46%Vicky Hartzler
5th66.00%31.20%Emanuel Cleaver
6th50.09%46.96%Sam Graves
7th43.75%53.39%Billy Long
8th48.27%49.06%Jo Ann Emerson

See also

[edit]

References

[edit]
  1. ^ "Gov. Nixon confirms he will seek re-election". Associated Press. December 16, 2010. Archived from the original on July 29, 2012. Retrieved December 16, 2010.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g Redden, Susan (April 2, 2012). "Susan Redden: Candidates for governor, lieutenant governor total 23". The Joplin Globe. Retrieved May 25, 2012.
  3. ^ "Governor candidate Randles: Voters reject 'next guy in line' philosophy". August 25, 2011.
  4. ^ Public Policy Polling
  5. ^ a b c Mason-Dixon
  6. ^ a b c Public Policy Polling
  7. ^ Public Policy Polling
  8. ^ "2012 Governor Race Ratings for November 1, 2012". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
  9. ^ "PROJECTION: OBAMA WILL LIKELY WIN SECOND TERM". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Archived from the original on December 1, 2018. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
  10. ^ "2012 Gubernatorial Ratings". Gubernatorial Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
  11. ^ "2012 Elections Map - 2012 Governor Races". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
  12. ^ Public Policy Polling
  13. ^ SurveyUSA
  14. ^ Mason-Dixon
  15. ^ Public Policy Polling
  16. ^ Public Policy Polling
  17. ^ Public Policy Polling
  18. ^ Survey USA
  19. ^ Chilenski Strategies
  20. ^ a b Public Policy Polling
  21. ^ a b Public Policy Polling
  22. ^ a b c d e Public Policy Polling
  23. ^ a b c Public Policy Polling
  24. ^ Public Policy Polling
  25. ^ a b Public Policy Polling
  26. ^ "State of Missouri - Election Night Results".
  27. ^ "Daily Kos".
[edit]
  • Elections from the Missouri Secretary of State

Campaign sites (archived)

Retrieved from "https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2012_Missouri_gubernatorial_election&oldid=1319832330"

    2012 Missouri gubernatorial election
    November 6, 2012 (2012-11-06)
     
    NomineeJay NixonDave Spence
    PartyDemocraticRepublican
    Popular vote1,494,0561,160,265
    Percentage54.77%42.53%
    Nixon:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      80–90%
    Spence:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%
    Governor before election

    Jay Nixon
    Democratic

    		Elected Governor

    Jay Nixon
    Democratic

    The 2012 Missouri gubernatorial election was held on November 6, 2012, to elect the Governor of Missouri. Incumbent Democratic Governor Jay Nixon won re-election against the Republican nominee, businessman Dave Spence, despite incumbent President Barack Obama losing Missouri on the same day to Republican nominee Mitt Romney. As of 2025, this is the last time a Democrat won the governorship of Missouri and the last time that a governor and lieutenant governor of different political parties were simultaneously elected in Missouri. Primary elections took place on August 5, 2012.

    Democratic primary

    Candidates

    Nominee

    Eliminated in primary

    • William Campbell[2]
    • Clay Thunderhawk[2]

    Results

    Democratic primary results
    PartyCandidateVotes%
    DemocraticJay Nixon (incumbent) 269,865 86.0%
    DemocraticWilliam Campbell25,7218.2%
    DemocraticClay Thunderhawk18,2285.8%
    Total votes313,814 100.0%

    Republican primary

    Candidates

    Nominee

    Eliminated in primary

    • Bill Randles, businessman and corporate defense lawyer[3]
    • Fred Sauer, investment executive and anti-abortion activist[2]
    • John Weiler[2]

    Polling

    Poll sourceDate(s) administeredSample
    size    		Margin of
    error    		Bill
    Randles    		Fred
    Sauer    		Dave
    Spence    		John
    Weiler    		Undecided
    Public Policy Polling[4]August 4–5, 2012590± 4.0%15%12%42%3%29%
    Mason-Dixon[5]July 23–25, 2012400± 5.0%15%1%41%3%40%
    Public Policy Polling[6]May 24–27, 2012430± 4.7%11%4%32%1%43%
    Public Policy Polling[7]January 27–29, 2012574± 4.1%15%—11%—74%

    Results

    Republican primary results
    PartyCandidateVotes%
    RepublicanDave Spence 333,578 59.9%
    RepublicanBill Randles90,65116.3%
    RepublicanFred Sauer83,69515.0%
    RepublicanJohn Weiler49,0068.8%
    Total votes556,930 100.0%

    Libertarian primary

    Candidates

    Denied ballot access

    • Leonard Steinman[2]

    Results

    Libertarian primary results
    PartyCandidateVotes%
    LibertarianJim Higgins 2,500 100.0%
    Total votes2,500 100.0%

    General election

    Debates

    • Complete video of debate, C-SPAN, September 21, 2012

    Predictions

    SourceRankingAs of
    The Cook Political Report[8]Lean DNovember 1, 2012
    Sabato's Crystal Ball[9]Likely DNovember 5, 2012
    Inside Elections[10]Likely DNovember 2, 2012
    Real Clear Politics[11]Lean DNovember 5, 2012

    Polling

    Poll sourceDate(s) administeredSample
    size    		Margin of
    error    		Jay
    Nixon (D)    		Dave
    Spence (R)    		OtherUndecided
    Public Policy Polling[12]November 2–3, 2012835± 3.4%53%45%—2%
    SurveyUSA[13]October 28–November 3, 2012589± 4.1%48%39%5%8%
    Mason-Dixon[14]October 23–25, 2012625± 4%48%42%—9%
    Public Policy Polling[15]October 19–21, 2012582± 4.1%51%40%—8%
    Public Policy Polling[16]October 1–3, 2012700± 3.7%54%35%—12%
    Public Policy Polling[17]August 20, 2012500± 4.4%46%37%—16%
    Survey USA[18]August 9–12, 2012585± 4.1%51%37%5%6%
    Chilenski Strategies[19]August 8, 2012663± 3.8%53%39%—9%
    Mason-Dixon[5]July 23–25, 2012625± 4.0%48%39%—13%
    Public Policy Polling[6]May 24–27, 2012602± 4.0%45%34%—21%
    Public Policy Polling[20]January 27–29, 2012582± 4.1%47%27%—26%
    Hypothetical polling

    Republican primary

    Poll sourceDate(s)
    administered    		Sample
    size    		Margin of
    error    		Peter
    Kinder    		Bill
    Randles    		Undecided
    Public Policy Polling[21]September 9–12, 2011400± 4.9%34%14%53%
    Poll sourceDate(s)
    administered    		Sample
    size    		Margin of
    error    		Peter
    Kinder    		Someone
    else    		Undecided
    Public Policy Polling[21]September 9–12, 2011400± 4.9%22%35%43%

    General election

    Poll sourceDate(s) administeredSample
    size    		Margin of
    error    		Jay
    Nixon (D)    		Bill
    Randles (R)    		OtherUndecided
    Mason-Dixon[5]July 23–25, 2012625± 4.0%50%35%—15%
    Public Policy Polling[6]May 24–27, 2012602± 4.0%46%32%—22%
    Public Policy Polling[20]January 27–29, 2012582± 4.1%47%29%—24%
    Public Policy Polling[22]September 9–12, 2011632± 3.9%45%24%—30%
    Poll sourceDate(s) administeredSample
    size    		Margin of
    error    		Jay
    Nixon (D)    		Matt
    Blunt (R)    		OtherUndecided
    Public Policy Polling[22]September 9–12, 2011632± 3.9%50%37%—13%
    Public Policy Polling[23]April 28-May 1, 2011555± 3.9%48%38%—13%
    Poll sourceDate(s) administeredSample
    size    		Margin of
    error    		Jay
    Nixon (D)    		John
    Danforth (R)    		OtherUndecided
    Public Policy Polling[22]September 9–12, 2011632± 3.9%39%45%—17%
    Poll sourceDate(s) administeredSample
    size    		Margin of
    error    		Jay
    Nixon (D)    		Kenny
    Hulshof (R)    		OtherUndecided
    Public Policy Polling[23]April 28-May 1, 2011555± 3.9%51%34%—15%
    Poll sourceDate(s) administeredSample
    size    		Margin of
    error    		Jay
    Nixon (D)    		Peter
    Kinder (R)    		OtherUndecided
    Public Policy Polling[22]September 9–12, 2011632± 3.9%50%31%—18%
    Public Policy Polling[23]April 28-May 1, 2011555± 3.9%48%34%—18%
    Public Policy Polling[24]March 3–6, 2011612± 4.0%45%38%—17%
    Public Policy Polling[25]Nov. 29-December 1, 2010515± 4.3%47%39%—14%
    Poll sourceDate(s) administeredSample
    size    		Margin of
    error    		Jay
    Nixon (D)    		Sarah
    Steelman (R)    		OtherUndecided
    Public Policy Polling[25]Nov. 29-December 1, 2010515± 4.3%46%35%—19%
    Poll sourceDate(s) administeredSample
    size    		Margin of
    error    		Jay
    Nixon (D)    		Jim
    Talent (R)    		OtherUndecided
    Public Policy Polling[22]September 9–12, 2011632± 3.9%47%38%—14%

    Results

    Nixon won by a comfortable 12.3% margin, though this was somewhat closer than his 2008 victory. Even with President Barack Obama losing the state by a nine-point margin, Nixon and Senator Claire McCaskill both won reelection easily. Like his Senatorial colleague, Nixon was able to get a huge number of votes from rural areas. Both Nixon and McCaskill were declared the winners of their respective races even before the known Democratic strongholds of St. Louis and Kansas City came in.

    Missouri gubernatorial election, 2012[26]
    PartyCandidateVotes%±%
    DemocraticJay Nixon (incumbent) 1,494,056 54.77% −3.63%
    RepublicanDave Spence1,160,26542.53%+3.04%
    LibertarianJim Higgins73,5092.70%+1.59%
    Write-in530.00%0.00%
    Total votes2,727,883 100.00% N/A
    Democratic hold

    Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

    Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

    By congressional district

    Nixon won five of eight congressional districts, including three that elected Republicans.[27]

    DistrictNixonSpenceRepresentative
    1st81.38%13.21%Lacy Clay
    2nd50.67%47.37%Todd Akin (112th Congress)
    Ann Wagner (113th Congress)
    3rd48.20%49.08%Russ Carnahan (112th Congress)
    Blaine Luetkemeyer (113th Congress)
    4th49.16%47.46%Vicky Hartzler
    5th66.00%31.20%Emanuel Cleaver
    6th50.09%46.96%Sam Graves
    7th43.75%53.39%Billy Long
    8th48.27%49.06%Jo Ann Emerson

    See also

    References

    1. ^ "Gov. Nixon confirms he will seek re-election". Associated Press. December 16, 2010. Archived from the original on July 29, 2012. Retrieved December 16, 2010.
    2. ^ a b c d e f g Redden, Susan (April 2, 2012). "Susan Redden: Candidates for governor, lieutenant governor total 23". The Joplin Globe. Retrieved May 25, 2012.
    3. ^ "Governor candidate Randles: Voters reject 'next guy in line' philosophy". August 25, 2011.
    4. ^ Public Policy Polling
    5. ^ a b c Mason-Dixon
    6. ^ a b c Public Policy Polling
    7. ^ Public Policy Polling
    8. ^ "2012 Governor Race Ratings for November 1, 2012". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
    9. ^ "PROJECTION: OBAMA WILL LIKELY WIN SECOND TERM". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Archived from the original on December 1, 2018. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
    10. ^ "2012 Gubernatorial Ratings". Gubernatorial Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
    11. ^ "2012 Elections Map - 2012 Governor Races". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
    12. ^ Public Policy Polling
    13. ^ SurveyUSA
    14. ^ Mason-Dixon
    15. ^ Public Policy Polling
    16. ^ Public Policy Polling
    17. ^ Public Policy Polling
    18. ^ Survey USA
    19. ^ Chilenski Strategies
    20. ^ a b Public Policy Polling
    21. ^ a b Public Policy Polling
    22. ^ a b c d e Public Policy Polling
    23. ^ a b c Public Policy Polling
    24. ^ Public Policy Polling
    25. ^ a b Public Policy Polling
    26. ^ "State of Missouri - Election Night Results".
    27. ^ "Daily Kos".
    • Elections from the Missouri Secretary of State

    Campaign sites (archived)

    • Jay Nixon for Governor
    • Dave Spence for Governor
    • Jim Higgins for Governor
    Retrieved from "https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2012_Missouri_gubernatorial_election&oldid=1319832330"