2012 United States presidential election in Michigan

2012 United States presidential election in Michigan

November 6, 2012
Turnout63% Decrease [1]
 
NomineeBarack ObamaMitt Romney
PartyDemocraticRepublican
Home stateIllinoisMassachusetts
Running mateJoe BidenPaul Ryan
Electoral vote160
Popular vote2,564,5692,115,256
Percentage54.21%44.71%

The 2012 United States presidential election in Michigan took place on November 6, 2012, as part of the 2012 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Voters chose 16 electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting incumbent Democratic President Barack Obama and his running mate, Vice President Joe Biden, against Republican challenger and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and his running mate, Congressman Paul Ryan.

Michigan was won by Democrat Barack Obama with 54.21% of the vote to Romney's 44.71%, a victory margin of 9.50%.[2] It was the sixth presidential election in a row where Michigan voted in favor of the Democratic candidate, with Republicans last carrying the state in 1988. Obama's margin of victory was significantly decreased from 2008 when he carried the state by 16.44%, and he lost 26 counties that had voted for him four years prior. Many of those counties had gone Democratic for the first time in decades, such as Berrien County, which had not voted for a Democrat since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964.

As of the 2024 presidential election, this is the last time that Wayne County, the state’s most populous county and home to Detroit, was the most Democratic county in Michigan; and the last time that Bay County, Calhoun County, Eaton County, Gogebic County, Isabella County, Lake County, Macomb County, Manistee County, Monroe County, Shiawassee County, and Van Buren County voted for the Democratic candidate. It is also the last time either party carried Michigan by more than 3%.

Primary elections

Democratic primary

2012 Michigan Democratic presidential caucuses

May 5, 2012

203 delegates
to the Democratic National Convention
The number of pledged delegates won is determined by the popular vote
 
CandidateBarack ObamaUncommitted
Home stateIllinoisN/A
Delegate count2030
Popular vote174,05420,833
Percentage89.3%10.7%

County winner
  Barack Obama

The Democratic Party used a caucus system to determine the proportion of delegates awarded to Democratic candidates. The caucuses took place May 5; as the only Democratic candidate, President Obama won all 183 pledged delegates in the caucus. They, along with the other 20 unpledged delegates, voted for Obama at the 2012 Democratic National Convention in Charlotte, North Carolina.

2012 Michigan Democratic presidential caucuses[3]
CandidateVotesPercentageProjected delegate count
AP
[4]
CNN
[5]
GP
[6]
Barack Obama (incumbent)174,05489.31%203203203
Uncommitted20,83310.69%000
Total:194,887100.00%203203203

Republican primary

2012 Michigan Republican presidential primary

February 28, 2012 (2012-02-28)
 
CandidateMitt RomneyRick Santorum
Home stateMassachusettsPennsylvania
Delegate count1614
Popular vote409,522377,372
Percentage41.10%37.87%

 
CandidateRon PaulNewt Gingrich
Home stateTexasGeorgia
Delegate count00
Popular vote115,91165,027
Percentage11.63%6.53%

Michigan results by county
  Mitt Romney
  Rick Santorum

The Republican primary took place on February 28, 2012,[7] the same day as the Arizona Republican primary. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney won both of these elections.

This Michigan election used a semi-open primary system (which the state referred to as "closed") in which each voter made a public declaration at their election site and received the ballot for the appropriate party, rather than the fully open system used in the past.[8] The state had 7,286,556 registered voters as of February 15, and delegates were awarded proportionately.[9]

Michigan was given 59 delegates to the Republican (GOP) national convention, but that number was reduced to 30 as a penalty for bringing the election date forward before March 6 as the GOP rules set.[7] The candidate with the greatest number of votes in each of the 14 congressional districts will receive that district's two delegates. Two additional delegates for Michigan were announced by the media to be given proportionally before the election[7] but after the election the Michigan GOP announced there had been an error in the memo published and that the two delegates will be given to the winner, which sparked accusations of Mitt Romney rigging the results from Rick Santorum's team.[10]

Polling

Campaign

While Romney has close ties to Michigan, where he was born and grew up and his father was the Governor, Santorum, who once trailed Romney badly in the state, had a clear lead over him in mid February after Santorum won Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri caucuses and primary on February 7. And the competition became a statistical tie between these two candidates before the primary.[11]

Since Michigan allows primary voters to declare their affiliation at the time they vote, Santorum campaign paid for robo-calls inviting Democrats to cross over and vote for him.[12] Romney called this tactic "outrageous" and "disgusting" but Santorum defended himself as not doing anything wrong but getting people to vote in an open primary.[13]

Some Democrats also urged their supporters to vote for Santorum in the Republican primary, in hopes of forcing the Republican candidates to use more resources and help make it easier for Barack Obama to win the general election.[14] This is similar to Rush Limbaugh's "Operation Chaos", where Limbaugh urged voters in the 2008 Democratic Presidential primaries to vote for Hillary Clinton, whom he saw as being a weaker candidate than Obama.[15] Michigan has a long history of such crossover voting; in 2000, strong Democratic crossover votes helped Senator John McCain win the Michigan Republican primary.[16] In 1972, Republican crossover votes propelled Governor George Wallace to victory in the Democratic primary.[17][18]

Results

Polls closed at 8 PM local time on election day.[19] While most of the state is in the Eastern time zone (UTC −5), four counties in the Upper Peninsula are on Central time (UTC −6), so the final closures came at 9 PM Eastern time. As of 2/28, results showed Romney winning 7 congressional districts and Santorum winning 7.

2012 Michigan Republican presidential primary[20]
CandidateVotesPercentageProjected delegate count
AP
[21]
CNN
[22]
GP
[23]
Mitt Romney409,52241.10%161616
Rick Santorum377,37237.87%141414
Ron Paul115,91111.63%000
Newt Gingrich65,0276.53%000
Rick Perry (withdrawn)1,8160.18%000
Buddy Roemer (withdrawn)1,7840.18%000
Michele Bachmann (withdrawn)1,7350.17%000
Jon Huntsman (withdrawn)1,6740.17%000
Herman Cain (withdrawn)1,2110.12%000
Fred Karger1,1800.12%000
Gary Johnson (withdrawn)4580.05%000
Uncommitted18,8091.89%000
Unprojected delegates:200
Total:996,499100.00%303030

At the Republican state convention in May, it was reported that of the 30 voting delegates for the national convention in Tampa, 6 were Paul supporters, and 24 were Romney supporters.[24][25][26][27] Paul organizers disputed these numbers, stating that they had actually taken 8 (instead of 6) of the voting delegates, plus several non-voting slots.[28]

Delegate allocation controversy

A controversy arose over the delegate allocation in Michigan, where 28 congressional district delegates and two at-large delegates were awarded. The Republican Party of Michigan rules stated that the two at-large delegates would be awarded proportionally, meaning that Santorum and Romney would get one delegate each for a 15–15 tie. But the following day the party's credentials committee allocated both at-large delegates to Romney, saying it had changed the rules a few weeks prior to award the delegates to the statewide winner but "in error" sent a memo to the candidates saying they would be awarded proportionately.[29] Santorum's campaign protested, saying the committee's six members were mostly Romney supporters,[30] and filed a protest with the Republican National Committee. Santorum's general counsel wrote in a letter to the RNC, "It is our understanding that several public supporters and Michigan surrogates of an opposing campaign voted in favor of the delegate allocation change which assisted their chosen candidate. This request is not about the allocation of a single delegate; it is about ensuring a transparent process, avoiding unscrupulous tactics and backroom deals by establishment figures and campaigns who have not received the result they hoped for at the ballot box."[31] Committee member and former state attorney general Mike Cox endorsed Romney, but said the delegates should have been awarded 15-15: "I have this crazy idea that you follow the rules. I'd love to give the at-large delegates to Mitt Romney, but our rules provide for strict apportionment."[30]

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Huffington Post[32]Lean DNovember 6, 2012
CNN[33]Lean DNovember 6, 2012
New York Times[34]Lean DNovember 6, 2012
Washington Post[35]Lean DNovember 6, 2012
RealClearPolitics[36]TossupNovember 6, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball[37]Likely DNovember 5, 2012
FiveThirtyEight[38]Solid DNovember 6, 2012

Candidate ballot access

Write-in candidate access:

Results

2012 United States presidential election in Michigan[9]
PartyCandidateRunning mateVotesPercentageElectoral votes
DemocraticBarack Obama (incumbent)Joe Biden (incumbent)2,564,56954.04%16
RepublicanMitt RomneyPaul Ryan2,115,25644.58%0
GreenJill SteinCheri Honkala21,8970.46%0
ConstitutionVirgil GoodeJim Clymer16,1190.34%0
Libertarian (Write-in)Gary JohnsonJim Gray7,7740.16%0
Natural LawRocky AndersonLuis J. Rodriguez5,1470.11%0
Socialist (Write-in)Stewart AlexanderAlex Mendoza890.00%0
Socialist Equality
(Write-in)
Jerry WhitePhyllis Scherrer680.00%0
America's (Write-in)Tom HoeflingJ.D. Ellis420.00%0
Totals4,730,961100.00%16
Voter turnout (registered voters) [9]63.46%

By county

CountyBarack Obama
Democratic
Mitt Romney
Republican
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal votes cast
#%#%#%#%
Alcona2,47240.50%3,57158.50%611.00%-1,099-18.00%6,104
Alger2,21247.90%2,33050.45%761.65%-118-2.55%4,618
Allegan20,80639.42%31,12358.97%8461.61%-10,317-19.55%52,775
Alpena6,54946.48%7,29851.79%2441.73%-749-5.31%14,091
Antrim5,10738.70%7,91760.00%1711.30%-2,810-21.30%13,195
Arenac3,66946.79%4,05751.74%1151.47%-388-4.95%7,841
Baraga1,57445.10%1,86653.47%501.43%-292-8.37%3,490
Barry11,49140.15%16,65558.20%4711.65%-5,164-18.05%28,617
Bay27,87752.02%24,91146.49%7981.49%2,9665.53%53,586
Benzie4,68547.32%5,07551.26%1411.42%-390-3.94%9,901
Berrien33,46545.99%38,20952.51%1,0881.50%-4,744-6.52%72,762
Branch6,91340.32%10,03558.52%1991.16%-3,122-18.20%17,147
Calhoun29,26750.18%28,33348.58%7271.24%9341.60%58,327
Cass9,59142.65%12,65956.29%2401.06%-3,068-13.64%22,490
Charlevoix5,93942.05%8,00056.64%1861.31%-2,061-14.59%14,125
Cheboygan5,83143.68%7,28654.58%2331.74%-1,455-10.90%13,350
Chippewa7,10045.34%8,27852.86%2821.80%-1,178-7.52%15,660
Clare6,33846.83%6,98851.63%2091.54%-650-4.80%13,535
Clinton18,19146.36%20,65052.63%3941.01%-2,459-6.27%39,235
Crawford2,99443.94%3,74454.95%761.11%-750-11.01%6,814
Delta8,33045.95%9,53452.59%2661.46%-1,204-6.64%18,130
Dickinson4,95238.53%7,68859.82%2111.65%-2,736-21.29%12,851
Eaton27,91350.95%26,19747.82%6781.23%1,7163.13%54,788
Emmet7,22540.67%10,25357.71%2871.62%-3,028-17.04%17,765
Genesee128,97863.30%71,80835.24%2,9561.46%57,17028.06%203,742
Gladwin5,76045.78%6,66152.94%1621.28%-901-7.16%12,583
Gogebic4,05853.30%3,44445.24%1111.46%6148.06%7,613
Grand Traverse20,87543.31%26,53455.05%7881.64%-5,659-11.74%48,197
Gratiot7,61047.46%8,24151.39%1841.15%-631-3.93%16,035
Hillsdale7,10637.20%11,72761.40%2671.40%-4,621-24.20%19,100
Houghton6,80144.27%8,19653.36%3642.37%-1,395-9.09%15,361
Huron6,51842.10%8,80656.87%1601.03%-2,288-14.77%15,484
Ingham80,84763.01%45,30635.31%2,1571.68%35,54127.70%128,310
Ionia11,01842.61%14,31555.36%5232.03%-3,297-12.75%25,856
Iosco6,24246.63%6,90951.62%2341.75%-667-4.99%13,385
Iron2,68744.69%3,22453.63%1011.68%-537-8.94%6,012
Isabella13,03853.74%10,80044.52%4221.74%2,2389.22%24,260
Jackson32,30146.35%36,29852.09%1,0861.56%-3,997-5.74%69,685
Kalamazoo69,05155.83%52,66242.58%1,9771.59%16,38913.25%123,690
Kalkaska3,27239.43%4,90159.06%1261.51%-1,629-19.63%8,299
Kent133,40845.35%155,92553.00%4,8731.65%-22,517-7.65%294,206
Keweenaw58241.81%77455.60%362.59%-192-13.79%1,392
Lake2,75251.83%2,48746.84%711.33%2654.99%5,310
Lapeer18,79643.60%23,73455.05%5851.35%-4,938-11.45%43,115
Leelanau6,57646.25%7,48352.63%1601.12%-907-6.38%14,219
Lenawee21,77648.47%22,35149.75%8011.78%-575-1.28%44,928
Livingston37,21637.73%60,08360.91%1,3411.36%-22,867-23.18%98,640
Luce99138.17%1,58060.86%250.97%-589-22.69%2,596
Mackinac2,65243.35%3,39755.53%681.12%-745-12.18%6,117
Macomb208,01651.30%191,91347.33%5,5861.37%16,1033.97%405,515
Manistee6,47352.19%5,73746.26%1921.55%7365.93%12,402
Marquette18,11556.00%13,60642.06%6251.94%4,50913.94%32,346
Mason6,85646.75%7,58051.69%2291.56%-724-4.94%14,665
Mecosta7,51544.26%9,17654.04%2891.70%-1,661-9.78%16,980
Menominee5,24247.80%5,56450.73%1611.47%-322-2.93%10,967
Midland17,45041.57%23,91956.98%6101.45%-6,469-15.41%41,979
Missaukee2,27432.36%4,66566.39%881.25%-2,391-34.03%7,027
Monroe36,31049.68%35,59348.69%1,1921.63%7170.99%73,095
Montcalm11,43044.74%13,62153.32%4971.94%-2,191-8.58%25,548
Montmorency2,04940.57%2,92857.97%741.46%-879-17.40%5,051
Muskegon44,43658.16%30,88440.43%1,0771.41%13,55217.73%76,397
Newaygo8,72840.64%12,45758.00%2931.36%-3,729-17.36%21,478
Oakland349,00253.40%296,51445.37%8,0551.23%52,4888.03%653,571
Oceana5,06344.22%6,23954.49%1481.29%-1,176-10.27%11,450
Ogemaw4,79146.09%5,43752.31%1661.60%-646-6.22%10,394
Ontonagon1,58644.81%1,90653.86%471.33%-320-9.05%3,539
Osceola3,98138.73%6,14159.75%1561.52%-2,160-21.02%10,278
Oscoda1,65740.88%2,30856.95%882.17%-651-16.07%4,053
Otsego4,68139.37%7,01158.96%1991.67%-2,330-19.59%11,891
Ottawa42,73732.19%88,16666.41%1,8541.40%-45,429-34.22%132,757
Presque Isle3,19244.97%3,79453.45%1121.58%-602-8.48%7,098
Roscommon6,19847.40%6,70151.24%1781.36%-503-3.84%13,077
Saginaw54,38155.33%42,72043.46%1,1911.21%11,66111.87%98,292
St. Clair33,98345.81%39,27152.94%9271.25%-5,288-7.13%74,181
St. Joseph10,11243.13%12,97855.36%3551.51%-2,866-12.23%23,445
Sanilac7,21239.09%10,96359.42%2751.49%-3,751-20.33%18,450
Schoolcraft1,86545.92%2,14252.75%541.33%-277-6.83%4,061
Shiawassee17,19751.06%15,96247.39%5201.55%1,2353.67%33,679
Tuscola11,42543.76%14,24054.54%4451.70%-2,815-10.78%26,110
Van Buren16,29049.61%16,14149.15%4061.24%1490.46%32,837
Washtenaw120,89067.04%56,41231.28%2,9651.68%64,47835.76%180,337
Wayne595,84672.83%213,81426.13%8,4761.04%382,03246.70%818,136
Wexford6,18441.51%8,45056.72%2641.77%-2,266-15.21%14,898
Totals2,564,56954.04%2,115,25644.58%65,4911.38%449,3139.46%4,745,316
County Flips:
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Despite losing the state, Romney won nine of 14 congressional districts.[39]

DistrictObamaRomneyRepresentative
1st45%53%Dan Benishek
2nd43%56%Bill Huizenga
3rd46%53%Justin Amash
4th46%54%Dave Camp
5th61%38%Dan Kildee
6th49%50%Fred Upton
7th48%51%Tim Walberg
8th48%51%Mike Rogers
9th57%42%Sander Levin
10th44%55%Candice Miller
11th47%52%Kerry Bentivolio
12th66%33%John Dingell
13th85%14%John Conyers
14th81%18%Gary Peters

Analysis

All of the local polling firms had predicted a close election here, some even giving an advantage to native Michigander Romney over Obama; however, statistician Nate Silver pointed out several problems with the local pollsters' methodology and sampling errors, instead giving more credence to the national pollsters who posited a clear victory for Obama (by a mean of 7.3 points and a median of 7.0 over Romney).[40]

In the end, Silver and the National pollsters were correct: Obama defeated Romney by over 9 points in the November 2012 election. Obama dominated the population centers that had traditionally anchored Democratic strength in the state—Detroit, Lansing, Ann Arbor, and Flint—but he also retained two populous counties that had been Republican strongholds in the 1970s and 1980s, the Detroit-area suburban counties of Oakland and Macomb. Even in Kent County, which flipped back to the Republican column, Romney substantially underperformed what Bush had done in 2000 and 2004. While Romney did better in more rural areas, without better strength in some of the state's population centers, Romney was unable to flip the state.

See also

References

  1. ^ "Elections". www.michigan.gov.
  2. ^ "2012 Presidential Election – Michigan". Politico. Retrieved November 23, 2012.
  3. ^ "2012 Official Michigan Presidential Primary Election Results - President of the United States 4 Year Term (1) Position". Archived from the original on May 2, 2012. Retrieved May 7, 2012.
  4. ^ "Michigan Primary – AP". USA Today.
  5. ^ "Michigan Primary – CNN". CNN.
  6. ^ "Michigan Republican Delegation 2012". www.thegreenpapers.com.
  7. ^ a b c "Michigan Republican Delegation 2012". The Green Papers. Retrieved February 29, 2012.
  8. ^ Questions and Answers: Michigan's Feb. 28, 2012 Presidential Primary (PDF), Michigan Secretary of State, February 21, 2012, retrieved March 2, 2012
  9. ^ a b c "2012 Voter Registration Totals" (PDF). Michigan Secretary of State. February 15, 2012. Retrieved February 28, 2012.
  10. ^ "Michigan results provoke accusations, ire". CNN. March 1, 2012. Archived from the original on March 1, 2012. Retrieved March 2, 2012.
  11. ^ "After Many Momentum Shifts, Michigan Is Too Close to Call". FiveThirtyEight. February 28, 2012. Retrieved March 2, 2012.
  12. ^ "Santorum Campaign Invites Democratic Votes In Michigan Robo-Call". ABC News. February 27, 2012. Retrieved March 2, 2012.
  13. ^ "Romney blasts Santorum for 'dirty trick' calls to Michigan Dems encouraging vote in GOP primary". Fox News. February 28, 2012. Retrieved March 2, 2012.
  14. ^ Angela Wittrock (February 28, 2012). "Yes, Michigan Democrats are voting for Rick Santorum". MLive. Retrieved February 28, 2012.
  15. ^ Jon Bershad (February 28, 2012). "Rush Limbaugh Has "No Problem" With Rick Santorum Copying His Operation Chaos Approach". Mediaite. Retrieved February 28, 2012.
  16. ^ Camia, Catalina (February 27, 2012). "Crossover voting encouraged in Mich. GOP primary". On Politics. USA Today. Retrieved March 1, 2012.
  17. ^ Mitchell, Steve (February 23, 2012). "Michigan's quirky primaries". The Detroit News. Retrieved March 1, 2012.[permanent dead link]
  18. ^ Rosenthal, Jack (May 17, 1972). "Survey Ties Issues, Not Shooting, to Wallace Victory". The New York Times. Retrieved March 1, 2012.
  19. ^ "What hours are the polls open on Election Day?". Michigan Secretary of State. Retrieved February 28, 2012.
  20. ^ "2012 Official Michigan Presidential Primary Election Results - President of the United States 4 Year Term (1) Position". Archived from the original on May 2, 2012. Retrieved May 7, 2012.
  21. ^ "Michigan Primary – AP". USA Today.
  22. ^ "Michigan Primary – CNN". CNN.
  23. ^ "Michigan Republican Delegation 2012". www.thegreenpapers.com.
  24. ^ Mich GOP gets behind Romney convention[permanent dead link] [dead link]
  25. ^ "Ron Paul supporters unhappy with results of Michigan Republican Party Convention". May 19, 2012.
  26. ^ "Republicans say Michigan will be crucial state in 2012 presidential race". May 20, 2012.
  27. ^ Anuzis, Saul [@sanuzis] (May 19, 2012). "Romney Dominates Michigan Convention winning 24 delegates to Paul's 6 delegates. MI GOP fired up to help elect President Romney!" (Tweet). Retrieved January 5, 2021 – via Twitter.
  28. ^ Det News. Update [permanent dead link]
  29. ^ "Mitt Romney gets Michigan's at-large delegates". Detroit Free Press.
  30. ^ a b Reens, Nate (March 3, 2012). "Republican discord continues, national GOP to investigate Michigan party leaders?". mlive.
  31. ^ "Rick Santorum files protest over Michigan delegates - latimes.com". Los Angeles Times. March 3, 2012. Archived from the original on March 9, 2012. Retrieved June 28, 2021.
  32. ^ "Huffington Post Election Dashboard". HuffPost. Archived from the original on August 13, 2013.
  33. ^ "America's Choice 2012 Election Center: CNN Electoral Map". CNN. Archived from the original on January 19, 2013.
  34. ^ "Election 2012 - The Electoral Map: Building a Path to Victory". The New York Times. Archived from the original on July 8, 2012.
  35. ^ "2012 Presidential Election Results". The Washington Post. Archived from the original on July 26, 2012.
  36. ^ "RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Battle for White House". Archived from the original on June 8, 2011.
  37. ^ "PROJECTION: OBAMA WILL LIKELY WIN SECOND TERM". November 5, 2012.
  38. ^ "Nate Silver's political calculations predict 2012 election outcome". November 7, 2012.
  39. ^ "2012 election results: Presidential, U.S. Senate, U.S. House races". November 6, 2012.
  40. ^ Nate Silver (August 28, 2012). "Aug. 27: Michigan Isn't a Tossup". The New York Times. Retrieved October 15, 2013.
  • The Green Papers: for Michigan
  • The Green Papers: Major state elections in chronological order.
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