2010 Oregon gubernatorial election

2010 Oregon gubernatorial election

November 2, 2010

Nominee John Kitzhaber Chris Dudley Party Democratic Republican Alliance Independent Party Popular vote 716,525 694,287 Percentage 49.29% 47.76%

County results Kitzhaber:      40–50%      50–60%     70–80% Dudley:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%

Governor before election Ted Kulongoski Democratic Elected Governor John Kitzhaber Democratic

The 2010 Oregon gubernatorial election was held on Tuesday, November 2, 2010, to elect the governor of Oregon to a four-year term beginning on January 10, 2011. The incumbent governor, Democrat Ted Kulongoski, was ineligible to run due to term limits barring him from being elected to more than two consecutive terms.

The Democratic candidate John Kitzhaber, who had previously served two terms as governor from 1995 to 2003, was elected to a third term, earning a narrow victory over Republican candidate Chris Dudley and two minor party candidates. Kitzhaber's election marked the first time in Oregon's history that a person has been elected to a third term as governor.

Oregon first used its new cross-nomination system, a form of fusion voting, in the 2010 general elections. In this system, a candidate for partisan public office can be nominated by up to three political parties.^[1]Kitzhaber was nominated by the Independent Party of Oregon in addition to the Democratic Party.

Almost every opinion poll throughout the election season showed a statistical tie between the two, state Republicans saw this election as the best chance to win the governorship since the last Republican governor, Victor Atiyeh, was re-elected in 1982. Once polls closed on election day, Dudley had led in early vote counts, but Kitzhaber narrowly won due to wide margins in Multnomah and Lane counties.^[2] However, this remains the closest Republicans have come to winning the governorship since that election.

Democratic primary

Candidates

• John Kitzhaber, former governor of Oregon
• Bill Bradbury, former Oregon secretary of state
• Roger Obrist

Polling

Poll source	Date administered	John Kitzhaber	Bill Bradbury	Undecided
Davis, Hibbetts & Midghall[3]	May 8–10, 2010	53%	23%	22%
Survey USA[4]	May 7–9, 2010	59%	25%	12%

Results

Results by county:

  Kitzhaber

•   40–50%
•   50–60%
•   60–70%
•   70–80%
•   80–90%

Oregon Democratic gubernatorial primary results^[5]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	John Kitzhaber	242,545	64.78
	Democratic	Bill Bradbury	110,298	29.46
	Democratic	Roger Obrist	16,057	4.29
	Democratic	Write-ins	5,504	1.47
Total votes			374,404	100.00

Republican primary

Chris Dudley sign

Candidates

• Chris Dudley, former professional basketball player
• Allen Alley, businessman and deputy chief of staff to Governor Ted Kulongoski
• Clark Colvin, business executive
• William Ames Curtright
• Bob Forthan
• Darren Karr, small business owner
• John Lim, former Oregon State Senator and unsuccessful nominee for the U.S. Senate in 1998
• Bill Sizemore, 1998 Republican nominee for Governor of Oregon
• Rex O. Watkins, real estate agent

Polling

Poll source	Date administered	Chris Dudley	Allen Alley	John Lim	Bill Sizemore	Undecided
Davis, Hibbetts & Midghall[3]	May 8–10, 2010	33%	23%	8%	6%	24%
Survey USA[4]	May 7–9, 2010	42%	24%	8%	8%	14%

Results

Results by county:

  Dudley

•   30–40%
•   40–50%
•   50–60%
•   60–70%

  Alley

•   20–30%
•   30–40%
•   40–50%

Oregon Republican gubernatorial primary results^[5]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Chris Dudley	122,855	39.11
	Republican	Allen Alley	99,753	31.76
	Republican	John Lim	47,339	15.07
	Republican	Bill Sizemore	23,522	7.49
	Republican	William Ames Curtright	12,497	3.98
	Republican	Rex O. Watkins	3,060	0.97
	Republican	Write-ins	2,001	0.64
	Republican	Clark Colvin	1,206	0.38
	Republican	Darren Karr	1,127	0.36
	Republican	Bob Forthan	727	0.23
Total votes			314,087	100.00

Independent Party primary

Oregon first used its new cross nomination system, a form of fusion voting, in the 2010 general elections. In this system, a candidate for partisan public office can be nominated by up to three political parties.^[1]As a result, the Independent Party of Oregon did not file a candidate and instead chose to hold a month-long online primary in July.^[6] In doing so, it became the first political party in the United States to conduct a binding statewide primary election entirely over the Internet,^[7]and it was the largest nominating process ever held by an Oregon minor political party.^[8]Republican Chris Dudley did not apply for the Independent Party nomination by the required date, so he was not on the ballot, but he could be written in.^[6]

Candidates

• John Kitzhaber, former Governor of Oregon
• Jerry Wilson, businessman
• Richard Esterman, photographer

Results

Independent Party of Oregon gubernatorial primary results^[9]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	John Kitzhaber	850	38.39
	Independent Party	Richard Esterman	438	19.78
	Independent Party	Write-ins	314	14.18
	Independent Party	None of the above	312	14.09
	Progressive	Jerry Wilson	300	13.55
Total votes			2,214	100.00

General election

Voters' pamphlet for the 2010 general election

Candidates

• Chris Dudley (Republican), former professional basketball player
• John Kitzhaber (Democratic, Independent Party of Oregon), former Governor of Oregon
• Greg Kord (Constitution), industrial piping designer
• Wes Wagner (Libertarian), systems administrator

Campaign

Following the primaries, the two leading candidates, Dudley and Kitzhaber, campaigned separately throughout the state for the summer. Despite attempts by both campaigns to arrange a debate, the candidates could only agree on a single debate on September 30.^[10] Through the end of September, the Dudley campaign had raised $5.6 million, more than twice as much as the Kitzhaber campaign.^[11]

Throughout the last few months of the campaign, opinion polls showed a tight race with the lead apparently changing frequently. Due to the closeness of the race, President Barack Obama, for whom Oregon voted by a 16-percent margin in 2008, stumped for Kitzhaber; then headlined a rally at the Oregon Convention Center in Portland on October 20, 2010.

Newspaper endorsements

Newspaper	Endorsement
The Oregonian (Portland)		John Kitzhaber[12]
Willamette Week (Portland)		John Kitzhaber[13]
Portland Tribune		John Kitzhaber[14]
The Register-Guard (Eugene)		John Kitzhaber[15]
Statesman Journal (Salem)		Chris Dudley[16]
Mail Tribune (Medford)		John Kitzhaber[17]
The Bulletin (Bend)		Chris Dudley[18]
East Oregonian (Pendleton)		John Kitzhaber[19]
The Lake Oswego Review		John Kitzhaber[20]
The News-Review (Roseburg)		John Kitzhaber[21]
The Outlook (Gresham)		John Kitzhaber[22]
The Daily Astorian		John Kitzhaber[23]
Corvallis Gazette-Times		John Kitzhaber[24]
News-Register (McMinnville)		Chris Dudley[25]
The Sandy Post		John Kitzhaber[26]
Beaverton Valley Times		John Kitzhaber[27]
West Linn Tidings		John Kitzhaber[28]

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Cook Political Report[29]	Tossup	October 14, 2010
Rothenberg[30]	Tossup	October 28, 2010
RealClearPolitics[31]	Tossup	November 1, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball[32]	Lean R (flip)	October 28, 2010
CQ Politics[33]	Lean D	October 28, 2010

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Margin of error	John Kitzhaber (D)	Chris Dudley (R)	Other candidate(s)	Undecided
Davis & Hibbitts[34]	October 30–31, 2010	± 3.1%	46%	43%
Survey USA[35]	October 23–28, 2010	± 4.2%	48%	41%	2%	8%
Rasmussen Reports[36]	October 25, 2010	± 4.0%	46%	49%	3%	3%
Hibbitts[37]	October 24–25, 2010	± 4.4%	42%	45%	2%	12%
Elway Research[38]	October 18–19, 2010	± 4.4%	45%	44%	3%	5%
Public Policy Polling[39]	October 16–17, 2010	± 2.8%	48%	47%		5%
Survey USA[40]	October 12–14, 2010	± 3.9%	46%	45%	4%	5%
Rasmussen Reports[41]	October 10, 2010	± 4.0%	48%	46%	3%	4%
Survey USA[42]	September 12–14, 2010	± 4.2%	43%	49%	5%	3%
Riley Research[43]	August 31 – September 9, 2010	± 5.0%	40%	39%	5%	16%
Rasmussen Reports[44]	September 8, 2010	± 4.0%	44%	49%	2%	5%
Rasmussen Reports[45]	August 22, 2010	± 4.0%	44%	45%	3%	8%
Grove Insight[46]	August 18–21, 2010	± 4.0%	44%	35%	4%	14%
Survey USA[47]	July 25–27, 2010	± 4.2%	44%	46%	7%	4%
Rasmussen Reports[48]	July 26, 2010	± 4.0%	44%	47%	5%	4%
Magellan Strategies[49]	June 28, 2010	± 3.2%	40%	41%	10%	9%
Davis, Hibbits and Midghall[50]	June 21, 2010	unk	41%	41%	6%	12%
Rasmussen Reports[51]	June 17, 2010	± 4.5%	45%	47%	4%	4%
Survey USA[52]	June 7–9, 2010	± 4.2%	40%	47%	6%	7%
Rasmussen Reports[53]	May 20, 2010	± 4.5%	44%	45%	4%	6%
Rasmussen Reports[54]	April 26, 2010	± 4.0%	41%	41%	4%	4%
Moore Insight[55]	February 20–21, 2010	± 4.0%	45%	33%		21%
Rasmussen Reports[56]	February 17, 2010	± 4.5%	42%	36%	7%	15%

Results

Kitzhaber gives his victory speech after winning the Oregon governorship

Oregon gubernatorial election, 2010^[57]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	John Kitzhaber	716,525	49.29%	−1.43%
	Republican	Chris Dudley	694,287	47.76%	+5.01%
	Constitution	Greg Kord	20,475	1.41%	−2.23%
	Libertarian	Wes Wagner	19,048	1.31%	+0.09%
	Write-ins		3,213	0.22%
Majority			22,238	1.53%	−6.45%
Turnout			1,453,548
	Democratic hold		Swing

By county

Dudley won 29 of Oregon's 36 counties. Kitzhaber won seven, including Multnomah County by a 43% margin of victory.^[57]

County	John Kitzhaber Democratic		Chris Dudley Republican		Greg Kord Constitution		Wes Wagner Libertarian		Write-in		Margin		Total
	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%
Baker	1,949	26.8%	4,816	68.1%	187	2.6%	166	2.3%	21	0.3%	-2,867	-39.40%	7,276
Benton	21,498	59.4%	13,767	38.0%	399	1.1%	448	1.2%	77	0.2%	7,731	21.36%	36,189
Clackamas	69,250	44.3%	83,516	53.4%	1,686	1.1%	1,547	1.0%	288	0.2%	-14,266	-9.13%	156,287
Clatsop	7,654	51.3%	6,792	45.5%	196	1.3%	166	1.6%	37	0.2%	862	5.78%	14,913
Columbia	8,973	44.4%	10,302	51.0%	493	2.4%	368	1.8%	54	0.3%	-1,329	-6.58%	20,190
Coos	10,456	41.3%	13,652	53.9%	618	2.4%	583	2.3%	34	0.1%	-3,196	-12.61%	25,343
Crook	2,314	26.1%	6,231	70.3%	152	1.7%	144	1.6%	21	0.2%	-3,917	-44.20%	8,862
Curry	3,986	38.8%	5,761	56.0%	275	2.7%	245	2.4%	14	0.1%	-1,775	-17.26%	10,281
Deschutes	24,289	38.1%	37,706	59.1%	861	1.3%	815	1.3%	112	0.2%	-13,417	-21.04%	63,783
Douglas	14,072	32.5%	27,438	63.3%	952	2.2%	807	1.9%	66	0.2%	-13,366	-30.84%	43,335
Gilliam	308	32.0%	620	64.4%	25	2.6%	7	0.7%	2	0.2%	-312	-32.43%	962
Grant	749	21.6%	2,576	74.3%	86	2.5%	50	1.4%	8	0.2%	-1,827	-52.67%	3,469
Harney	800	23.8%	2,436	72.3%	76	2.3%	48	1.4%	8	0.2%	-1,636	-48.57%	3,368
Hood River	4,778	56.7%	3,434	40.7%	95	1.1%	103	1.2%	17	0.2%	1,344	15.95%	8,427
Jackson	32,360	41.7%	42,715	55.0%	1,389	1.8%	1,117	1.4%	109	0.1%	-10,355	-13.33%	77,690
Jefferson	2,132	32.3%	4,240	64.2%	110	1.7%	110	1.7%	10	0.2%	-2,108	-31.93%	6,602
Josephine	11,558	34.7%	20,025	60.2%	1,018	3.1%	646	1.9%	43	0.1%	-8,467	-25.43%	33,290
Klamath	5,820	25.1%	16,295	70.4%	560	2.4%	428	1.8%	55	0.2%	-10,475	-45.23%	23,158
Lake	658	21.0%	2,323	74.2%	80	2.6%	64	2.0%	6	0.3%	-1,665	-53.18%	3,131
Lane	81,731	57.0%	57,394	40.0%	1,855	1.3%	2,045	1.4%	488	0.3%	24,337	16.96%	143,513
Lincoln	10,484	53.0%	8,540	43.2%	347	1.8%	389	2.0%	31	0.2%	1,944	9.82%	19,791
Linn	14,466	34.8%	25,370	61.1%	898	2.2%	708	1.7%	110	0.3%	-10,904	-26.24%	41,552
Malheur	1,884	24.4%	5,440	70.4%	246	3.2%	157	2.0%	5	0.1%	-3,556	-45.99%	7,732
Marion	44,795	44.4%	53,177	52.7%	1,530	1.5%	1,192	1.2%	242	0.2%	-8,382	-8.30%	100,936
Morrow	850	26.8%	2,184	68.8%	87	2.7%	48	1.5%	6	0.2%	-1,334	-42.02%	3,175
Multnomah	198,157	70.6%	76,915	27.4%	2,149	0.8%	2,879	1.0%	750	0.3%	121,242	43.17%	280,850
Polk	12,899	43.4%	15,966	53.7%	456	1.5%	336	1.1%	67	0.2%	-3,067	-10.32%	29,724
Sherman	238	26.3%	634	70.1%	15	1.7%	17	1.9%	1	0.1%	-496	-54.81%	905
Tillamook	5,072	46.0%	5,604	50.8%	163	1.5%	173	1.6%	19	0.2%	-532	-4.82%	11,031
Umatilla	6,321	32.1%	12,574	63.8%	441	2.2%	320	1.6%	47	0.2%	-6,253	-31.74%	19,703
Union	3,366	31.6%	6,869	64.5%	221	2.1%	165	1.5%	31	0.3%	-3,503	-32.89%	10,652
Wallowa	1,088	28.6%	2,581	67.9%	79	2.1%	43	1.1%	9	0.2%	-1,493	-39.29%	3,800
Wasco	4,024	43.2%	4,938	53.1%	161	1.7%	156	1.7%	27	0.3%	-914	-9.82%	9,306
Washington	92,811	49.6%	89,926	48.1%	1,977	1.1%	1,983	1.1%	336	0.2%	2,885	1.54%	187,033
Wheeler	216	28.6%	500	66.3%	22	2.9%	15	2.0%	1	0.1%	-284	-37.67%	754
Yamhill	14,519	39.7%	20,893	57.2%	570	1.6%	492	1.3%	61	0.2%	-6,374	-17.45%	36,535

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Clackamas (largest city: Lake Oswego)
• Columbia (largest city: St. Helens)
• Marion (largest city: Salem)
• Tillamook (largest city: Tillamook)
• Wasco (largest city: The Dalles)

See also

• 2010 Oregon state elections
• 2010 United States gubernatorial elections
• Governor of Oregon
• List of governors of Oregon

References

1. Mapes, Jeff (July 8, 2009). "Kulongoski will sign fusion voting bill". The Oregonian. Retrieved October 12, 2010.
2. "The Oregonian's prediction: John Kitzhaber wins Oregon governor race". The Oregonian. November 3, 2010. Retrieved November 3, 2010.
3. Davis, Hibbetts & Midghall Archived May 23, 2010, at the Wayback Machine
4. Survey USA
5. "Official Results: May 18, 2010 Primary Election". records.sos.state.or.us. Retrieved April 2, 2020.
6. "IPO primary FAQ". Archived from the original on September 25, 2010. Retrieved October 12, 2010.
7. "E-voting not ready yet". The Oregonian. Retrieved August 11, 2010.
8. "Oregon Independent Party Releases Results of its Private Primary". Ballot Access News. July 31, 2010. Retrieved August 11, 2010.
9. "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on August 17, 2011. Retrieved October 21, 2016.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
10. Esteve, Harry (October 1, 2010). "John Kitzhaber and Chris Dudley spar in Oregon gubernatorial campaign's only debate". The Oregonian. Retrieved October 1, 2010.
11. Steves, David (September 29, 2010). "Dudley doubles donor dollars". The Register-Guard. Retrieved October 1, 2010.
12. "Our endorsement: Kitzhaber for governor". The Oregonian. Portland. October 10, 2010. Retrieved November 6, 2010.
13. "Save Our State!". Willamette Week. Portland. October 13, 2010. Archived from the original on November 2, 2010. Retrieved November 7, 2010.
14. "Let Kitzhaber steer state into future". Portland Tribune. Pamplin Media Group. October 14, 2010. Retrieved November 7, 2010.
15. "Kitzhaber for governor: Oregon needs experience, not a fresh face". The Register-Guard. Eugene. October 17, 2010. Retrieved November 6, 2010.
16. "Chris Dudley worth taking a risk on: Candidate more likely to bring jobs, unity to state". Statesman Journal. Salem. October 10, 2010. Archived from the original on February 3, 2013. Retrieved November 6, 2010.
17. "Governor: John Kitzhaber: Oregon's problems are too complex for a newcomer; the state needs his experience". Mail Tribune. Medford. October 17, 2010. Retrieved November 6, 2010.
18. "Pick Dudley for governor". The Bulletin. Bend. October 15, 2010. Archived from the original on July 7, 2011. Retrieved November 6, 2010.
19. "Kitzhaber brings a clear vision for Oregon's future". East Oregonian. Pendleton. October 17, 2010. Archived from the original on January 21, 2013. Retrieved November 6, 2010.
20. "It's Kitzhaber by a nose in state gubernatorial contest". The Lake Oswego Review. October 21, 2010. Retrieved November 6, 2010.
21. "Kitzhaber's experience more valuable than fresh face". The News-Review. Roseburg. October 24, 2010. Retrieved November 6, 2010.
22. "Kitzhaber must use experience to bring change". The Outlook. Gresham. October 16, 2010. Retrieved November 6, 2010.
23. "John Kitzhaber for governor". The Daily Astorian. October 7, 2010. Retrieved November 6, 2010.^{[permanent dead link]}
24. "Kitzhaber best suited to lead Oregon". Corvallis Gazette-Times. October 21, 2010. Retrieved November 6, 2010.
25. "Endorsement summary: November 2010 general election". News-Register. McMinnville. October 30, 2010. Retrieved November 6, 2010.^{[permanent dead link]}
26. "Kitzhaber must use experience to bring change". The Sandy Post. Pamplin Media Group. October 20, 2010. Retrieved April 20, 2013.
27. "Kitzhaber earns slim nod thanks to his experience". Beaverton Valley Times. Pamplin Media Group. October 14, 2010. Retrieved April 20, 2013.
28. "Let Kitzhaber steer Oregon". West Linn Tidings. Pamplin Media Group. October 21, 2010. Retrieved April 20, 2013.
29. "2010 Governors Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
30. "Governor Ratings". Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
31. "2010 Governor Races". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
32. "THE CRYSTAL BALL'S FINAL CALLS". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
33. "Race Ratings Chart: Governor". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on October 5, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
34. Davis & Hibbitts Archived December 5, 2010, at the Wayback Machine
35. Survey USA
36. Rasmussen Reports
37. Hibbitts Archived November 4, 2010, at the Wayback Machine
38. Elway Research
39. Public Policy Polling
40. Survey USA
41. Rasmussen Reports
42. Survey USA
43. Riley Research Archived September 23, 2010, at the Wayback Machine
44. Rasmussen Reports
45. Rasmussen Reports
46. Grove Insight
47. Survey USA
48. Rasmussen Reports
49. Magellan Strategies
50. Davis, Hibbits and Midghall Archived June 26, 2010, at the Wayback Machine
51. Rasmussen Reports
52. Survey USA
53. Rasmussen Reports
54. Rasmussen Reports
55. Moore Insight
56. Rasmussen Reports
57. "Official Results: November 2, 2010 General Election". records.sos.state.or.us. Retrieved April 2, 2020.

External links

• Oregon Governor Candidates at Project Vote Smart
• Campaign contributions for 2010 Oregon Governor from Follow the Money
• Oregon Governor 2010 from OurCampaigns.com
• Election 2010: Oregon Governor from Rasmussen Reports
• 2010 Oregon Governor Race from Real Clear Politics
• 2010 Oregon Governor's Race from CQ Politics
• Race Profile in The New York Times

Official campaign websites (Archived)

• John Kitzhaber for Governor (D)
• Chris Dudley for Governor (R)

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