2014 Oregon gubernatorial election

2014 Oregon gubernatorial election
November 4, 2014
 
Nominee John KitzhaberDennis Richardson
Party DemocraticRepublican
Alliance Working FamiliesIndependent Party
Popular vote 733,230648,542
Percentage 49.89%44.13%
County resultsKitzhaber:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%Richardson:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
Governor before election

John KitzhaberDemocratic

Elected Governor

John KitzhaberDemocratic

The 2014 Oregon gubernatorial election was held on November 4, 2014, to elect the Governor of Oregon, concurrently with other elections in Oregon and across the United States.

Incumbent DemocratJohn Kitzhaber defeated Republican state legislator Dennis Richardson, winning his fourth overall, and second consecutive, four-year term as governor.[1] The race was closer than expected due to recent revelations of potential ethical violations involving his fiancée, Cylvia Hayes.[1] Most news outlets called the election in his favor by 9:00 p.m. on election night. Kitzhaber thanked his supporters for a successful race, while Richardson refused to concede due to the close tally.[2] Four third party candidates also appeared on the ballot, with each winning less than 2% of the vote.

Kitzhaber and Richardson were nominated in the primary election on May 20, 2014. As of 2022, this is the last gubernatorial election in Oregon where Clatsop County supported the Republican candidate, and the last one where Tillamook County supported the Democratic candidate.

If Kitzhaber had served his full term, he would have become the second longest-serving governor in U.S. history.[3] Kitzhaber, however, resigned as governor on February 18, 2015.[4]

This is the last time that a man was elected Governor of Oregon.

Background

Physician and then-President of the Oregon State SenateJohn Kitzhaber was first elected governor in 1994, and was re-elected in 1998. Term limits prevented him from running in 2002. He considered running in 2006, but decided not to; incumbent Democrat Ted Kulongoski was re-elected. In September 2009, Kitzhaber announced that he would seek a third term as governor in 2010.[5] In May 2010, he won the Democratic primary with 65% of the vote, defeating former secretary of state of Oregon Bill Bradbury.[6] After a close general election campaign, Kitzhaber won the election with 49% to Republican nominee Chris Dudley's 48%.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Results

Democratic primary results[9]
Party Candidate Votes %
DemocraticJohn Kitzhaber (incumbent) 268,654 89.0
DemocraticIfeanyichukwu C. Diru 27,833 9.22
write-ins5,388 1.78
Total votes301,875 100

Republican primary

A Republican had not won a statewide race in Oregon since incumbent senator Gordon H. Smith was re-elected in 2002 and a Republican has not been elected governor since Victor G. Atiyeh was re-elected in 1982. At the annual Dorchester Conference for activists in March 2013, Oregon Republicans acknowledged the difficulties they faced. At the Conference, "the lack of activity was so pronounced that the conference's Saturday night satirical show ran a video that began with an announcer intoning, "Now we go live to the 2014 Republican governor's debate." The camera then panned over a debate stage with two empty chairs, the monotony broken only by a broom-wielding janitor." High-profile Republicans have all passed on the election and while attendees split on whether the party needed to change its policies, they agreed that the party needed to be a "big tent" again.[10][11]

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

  • Jon Justesen, businessman and rancher[17]

Declined

Results

Results by county:
  Richardson
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
Republican primary results[9]
Party Candidate Votes %
RepublicanDennis Richardson 163,695 65.86
RepublicanGordon Challstrom 24,693 9.93
RepublicanBruce Cuff 23,912 9.62
RepublicanMae Rafferty 16,920 6.8
RepublicanTim Carr 14,847 5.97
RepublicanDarren Karr 2,474 1.0
write-ins2,011 0.8
Total votes248,552 100

Third parties

Candidates

Declared

Additionally, under Oregon's Electoral fusion law, Democratic nominee John Kitzhaber was nominated by the Working Families Party of Oregon, and Republican nominee Dennis Richardson was nominated by the Independent Party of Oregon.[22]

General election

Debates

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[23]Likely D November 3, 2014
Sabato's Crystal Ball[24]Likely D November 3, 2014
Rothenberg Political Report[25]Safe D November 3, 2014
Real Clear Politics[26]Lean D November 3, 2014

Polling

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror JohnKitzhaber (D) DennisRichardson (R)Other Undecided
Elway Research[27]October 26–27, 2014 403 ± 5% 45%38% 2%[28]9%
SurveyUSA[29]October 23–27, 2014 552 ± 4.3% 50%40% 6% 5%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[30]October 16–23, 2014 1,421 ± 4% 48%42% 1% 10%
SurveyUSA[31]October 16–19, 2014 561 ± 4.2% 51%38% 6% 6%
DHM Research[32]October 2014 ? ± 4.3% 50%29% 6% 15%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[33]September 20–October 1, 2014 1,508 ± 3% 49%42% 0% 8%
SurveyUSA[34]September 22–24, 2014 568 ± 4.2% 50%38% 5% 8%
Rasmussen Reports[35]September 2–3, 2014 750 ± 4% 48%38% 4% 10%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[36]August 18–September 2, 2014 1,541 ± 4% 48%42% 1% 8%
Moore Information^[37]August 5–9, 2014 500 ± 4% 45%41% — 13%
SurveyUSA[38]August 1–5, 2014 564 ± 4.2% 48%36% 7% 9%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[39]July 5–24, 2014 2,082 ± 2.6% 52%42% 1% 5%
On Message, Inc.^[40]June 22–24, 2014 600 ± 4% 42%38% — 16%
SurveyUSA[41]June 5–9, 2014 560 ± 4.2% 48%35% 10% 7%
Public Policy Polling[42]May 22–27, 2014 956 ± 3.2% 49%36% — 15%
DHM Research[43]May 2014 400 ± 4.9% 48%36% — 16%
Harper Polling[44]April 1–2, 2014 670 ± 3.91% 46%43% — 11%
  • ^ Internal poll for Dennis Richardson campaign
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror JohnKitzhaber (D) AllenAlley (R) Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[45]December 3–5, 2012 614 ± 4% 52%37% — 12%
Public Policy Polling[46]June 21–24, 2012 686 ± 3.7% 46%36% — 18%
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror JohnKitzhaber (D) JasonAtkinson (R) Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[46]June 21–24, 2012 686 ± 3.7% 45%30% — 24%
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror JohnKitzhaber (D) BruceHanna (R) Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[45]December 3–5, 2012 614 ± 4% 52%33% — 15%
Public Policy Polling[46]June 21–24, 2012 686 ± 3.7% 46%33% — 21%
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror JohnKitzhaber (D) Gordon H.Smith (R) Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[45]December 3–5, 2012 614 ± 4% 47%42% — 11%
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror JohnKitzhaber (D) BruceStarr (R) Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[45]December 3–5, 2012 614 ± 4% 53%31% — 16%
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror JohnKitzhaber (D) GregWalden (R) Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[45]December 3–5, 2012 614 ± 4% 49%40% — 11%
Public Policy Polling[46]June 21–24, 2012 686 ± 3.7% 42%41% — 17%

Results

Oregon gubernatorial election, 2014[47]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
DemocraticJohn Kitzhaber (incumbent) 733,230 49.89% +0.60%
RepublicanDennis Richardson648,542 44.13% −3.63%
Pacific GreenJason Levin 29,561 2.01% N/A
LibertarianPaul Grad 21,903 1.49% +0.18%
ConstitutionAaron Auer 15,929 1.08% N/A
ProgressiveChris Henry 13,898 0.95% N/A
Write-in6,654 0.45% +0.23%
Total votes 1,469,717 100.00% N/A
Democratichold

By county

County John KitzhaberDemocratic Dennis RichardsonRepublican Various candidatesOther parties Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # % # %
Baker1,951 27.4% 4,842 68.0% 323 4.5% -2,891 -40.6% 7,116
Benton21,694 58.5% 13,245 35.7% 2,160 5.8% 8,449 22.8% 37,009
Clackamas70,071 45.2% 77,059 49.7% 7,867 5.1% -6,988 -4.5% 154,997
Clatsop6,449 45.6% 6,550 46.3% 1,138 8.1% -101 -0.7% 19,835
Columbia8,477 42.7% 9,887 49.8% 1,471 7.4% -1,410 -7.1% 19,835
Coos10,120 42.3% 12,260 51.2% 1,546 6.5% -2,140 -8.9% 23,926
Crook2,601 29.4% 5,753 64.9% 508 5.8% -3,152 -35.5% 8,862
Curry3,946 40.7% 5,211 53.8% 535 5.5% -1,265 -13.1% 9,692
Deschutes31,518 45.6% 34,104 49.4% 3,441 5.0% -2,586 -3.8% 69,063
Douglas13,829 33.5% 24,553 59.5% 2,899 7.1% -10,724 -26.0% 41,281
Gilliam284 32.3% 546 62.2% 48 5.5% -262 -29.9% 878
Grant834 25.5% 2,294 70.2% 141 4.5% -1,460 -44.7% 3,269
Harney724 24.5% 2,083 70.4% 151 5.0% -1,359 -45.9% 2,958
Hood River4,875 58.8% 2,988 36.0% 426 5.1% 1,887 22.8% 8,289
Jackson35,235 42.7% 43,498 52.7% 3,855 4.7% -8,263 -10.0% 82,588
Jefferson2,333 34.2% 4,048 59.4% 432 6.3% -1,715 -25.2% 6,813
Josephine12,032 35.4% 19,926 58.7% 2,002 5.9% -7,894 -24.3% 33,960
Klamath6,416 28.1% 15,155 66.4% 1,265 5.6% -8,739 -38.3% 22,836
Lake736 23.1% 2,310 72.4% 145 4.5% -1,574 -49.3% 3,191
Lane82,132 57.1% 53,156 37.0% 8,535 20.1% 28,976 5.9% 143,823
Lincoln10,469 54.1% 7,609 39.3% 1,289 6.7% 2,860 14.8% 19,367
Linn14,890 34.5% 25,463 59.0% 2,831 6.6% -10,573 -24.5% 43,184
Malheur1,904 25.2% 5,226 69.2% 418 5.5% -3,322 -44.0% 7,548
Marion41,858 41.3% 53,377 52.7% 6,021 5.9% -11,519 -11.4% 101,256
Morrow870 27.8% 2,065 65.9% 198 6.3% -1,195 -38.1% 3,133
Multnomah202,617 69.9% 66,780 23.1% 20,273 7.0% 135,837 46.8% 289,670
Polk12,375 41.4% 15,809 52.9% 1,686 5.7% -3,434 -11.5% 29,870
Sherman252 28.3% 596 66.9% 43 4.8% -344 -38.6% 891
Tillamook4,907 46.7% 4,895 46.6% 706 6.7% 12 0.1% 10,508
Umatilla5,517 29.3% 12,337 65.5% 994 5.3% -6,820 -36.2% 18,848
Union3,087 30.4% 6,526 64.3% 536 5.3% -3,439 -33.9% 10,149
Wallowa1,008 27.9% 2,474 68.5% 129 3.6% -1,466 -40.6% 3,611
Wasco3,959 43.3% 4,557 49.8% 629 6.9% -598 -6.5% 9,145
Washington98,203 51.4% 81,484 42.7% 11,185 5.9% 16,719 8.7% 190,872
Wheeler203 29.6% 440 64.2% 42 5.2% -237 -34.6% 685
Yamhill14,854 40.8% 19,436 53.4% 2,077 5.7% -4,582 -12.6% 36,367
Total733,23049.9%648,54244.1%87,9456.0%84,6885.8%1,469,717

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

See also

References

  1. ^ abGunderson, Laura (November 5, 2014). "John Kitzhaber asks Oregon lawmakers to leave behind 'difficult campaign,' start healing". The Oregonian.
  2. ^Gunderson, Laura (November 4, 2014). "Dennis Richardson refuses to concede, John Kitzhaber thanks voters for a fourth term: Oregon election results 2014". The Oregonian.
  3. ^Ostermeier, Eric (December 10, 2013). "Kitzhaber Launches Bid to Become 2nd Longest-Serving Governor in History". Smart Politics.
  4. ^Nakamura, Beth (February 13, 2015). "Oregon Governor John Kitzhaber resigns amid criminal investigation, growing scandal". The Oregonian. Portland, Oregon. Retrieved February 13, 2015.
  5. ^Mapes, Jeff (September 2, 2009). "Kitzhaber files committee to run for governor". OregonLive.com.
  6. ^Kitzhaber, Dudley To Face Off For Governor - Your Vote News Story - KPTV PortlandArchived 2010-07-04 at the Wayback Machine
  7. ^ abChristian Gaston (March 11, 2014). "Election 2014: Who filed for Oregon statewide and congressional office". The Oregonian. Retrieved March 13, 2014.
  8. ^Esteve, Harry (December 9, 2013). "John Kitzhaber announces for historic fourth term". The Oregonian. Retrieved December 9, 2013.
  9. ^ ab"May 20, 2014 Primary Election Abstract of Votes: Governor". Oregon Secretary of State. Retrieved July 7, 2014.
  10. ^Mapes, Jeff (March 10, 2013). "Republicans search for ways to revive GOP brand in Oregon". The Oregonian. Retrieved July 25, 2013.
  11. ^Mapes, Jeff (March 8, 2013). "At Dorchester Conference, Oregon Republicans ponder how to restore their party". The Oregonian. Retrieved July 25, 2013.
  12. ^Esteve, Harry (January 13, 2014). "Portland businessman becomes latest to join growing group of Republican candidates for governor". The Oregonian. Portland, Oregon. Retrieved January 16, 2014.
  13. ^Esteve, Harry (January 9, 2014). "Another Republican files to run for Oregon governor". The Oregonian. Portland, Oregon. Retrieved January 16, 2014.
  14. ^Esteve, Harry (January 6, 2014). "Salem-area real estate broker, Bruce Cuff, enters Republican primary for governor". The Oregonian. Portland, Oregon. Retrieved January 16, 2014.
  15. ^ abGaston, Christian (March 10, 2014). "Allen Alley, former gubernatorial hopeful, won't challenge Oregon Gov. John Kitzhaber". The Oregonian. Retrieved March 11, 2014.
  16. ^Gaston, Christian (July 24, 2013). "Oregon Rep. Dennis Richardson announces run for governor". The Oregonian. Retrieved July 25, 2013.
  17. ^Mapes, Jeff (January 30, 2014). "Republican Jon Justesen, questioning his party's priorities, drops bid for Oregon governorship". The Oregonian. Retrieved January 31, 2014.
  18. ^"Chris Dudley, ending his political aspirations, says move to San Diego makes sense for his family". Oregon Live. April 7, 2012.
  19. ^"Bruce Hanna decides not to run for re-election -- or, for now, another seat: Oregon politics today". Oregon Live. September 20, 2013.
  20. ^"Gordon Smith finds happiness in private sector, has no plans to seek office". Oregon Live. August 6, 2012.
  21. ^"Republicans Pick Walden as New NRCC Chairman". Roll Call. November 14, 2012.
  22. ^ abcde"Oregon Secretary Of State". Retrieved September 23, 2014.
  23. ^"2014 Governor Race Ratings for November 3, 2014". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 3, 2018.
  24. ^"The Crystal Ball's Final 2014 Picks". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 3, 2018.
  25. ^"2014 Gubernatorial Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 3, 2018.
  26. ^"2014 Elections Map - 2014 Governors Races". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 3, 2018.
  27. ^Elway Research
  28. ^Aaron Auer (C)
  29. ^SurveyUSA
  30. ^CBS News/NYT/YouGov
  31. ^SurveyUSA
  32. ^DHM ResearchArchived October 17, 2014, at the Wayback Machine
  33. ^CBS News/NYT/YouGov
  34. ^SurveyUSA
  35. ^Rasmussen Reports
  36. ^CBS News/NYT/YouGov
  37. ^Moore Information^
  38. ^SurveyUSA
  39. ^CBS News/NYT/YouGov
  40. ^On Message, Inc.^
  41. ^SurveyUSA
  42. ^Public Policy Polling
  43. ^DHM Research
  44. ^Harper PollingArchived April 7, 2014, at the Wayback Machine
  45. ^ abcdePublic Policy Polling
  46. ^ abcdPublic Policy Polling
  47. ^"November 4, 2014, General Election, Official Abstract of Votes: Governor". Oregon Secretary of State. Retrieved December 6, 2014.

Official campaign websites (Archived)

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